Why YS Jagan should be cautious on capital

Andhra Pradesh is inching closer to solving the explosive and contentious issue of the capital city and its location. An expert committee on the development of AP headed by G N Rao submitted its report to the Jagan government a week ago.

Boston Consulting Group (BCG), a US-based management consultancy firm of global repute, also came out with its report at the behest of the AP government.

While GN Rao Committee made the capital issue more complex with its impractical recommendations, BCG's take on balanced development of AP looks a bit saner.

But the key gist of both the reports is closer to what AP Chief Minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy had enunciated on the floor of Assembly in December - three capitals for Andhra Pradesh.

And these reports also made the division of administrative setup crystal clear. While administrative capital goes to Visakhapatnam, Vijayawada will have to be content with legislature and Governor's presence.

And Kurnool, the largest city in backward Rayalaseema, will get judicial capital in the form of AP High Court and its associated paraphernalia.

That was what Jagan said in his Assembly speech. But expecting committees appointed by a government to differ with it and take a different view is far-fetched.

Going by the recent turn of events, Jagan Mohan Reddy seems to have made up his mind to shift capital from Amaravati much before Andhra Pradesh went to polls.

Perhaps, that was reason why YSRCP did not include capital issue in its manifesto. Moreover, the young YSRCP founder was also silent on the key issue during electioneering.

The defeat of TDP in Mangalagiri and Tadikonda assembly segments under which key parts of Amaravati capital region falls, might have strengthened his resolve.

TDP's loss in Mangalagiri is big political blow for Amaravati proponents as Nara Lokesh Naidu lost from there. Lokesh is no ordinary man.

He is son of Nara Chandrababu Naidu, the first chief minister of truncated AP and the brain behind Amaravati mega capital project. Senior Naidu propagated Amaravati as people's capital, but elections threw up a different feedback.

Furthermore, last year's election outcome in AP once again proved that intense focus on capital city and its development would not bring much-needed votes that are essential to stay in power in democracy.

But the opposite is also true. If Jagan shifts the capital from Amaravati and if something goes wrong with his plans, his party, the YSRCP, will pay a heavy political price in next elections.

The concept of decentralization of administration and three different capitals is likely to slow the development process.

Therefore, YS Jagan needs to tread carefully and cautiously before taking a final call on the capital issue.

Frankly speaking, Andhra Pradesh has ample choices when it comes to capital city options.

For instance, Kurnool has all the right features required for a capital. In fact, Kurnool was capital for Andhra State when it was carved out of Madras Presidency in 1953 and enjoyed the status for over three years before it was forced to relinquish the coveted position in favour of Hyderabad after Andhra Pradesh was formed in 1956.

That way, it has the first right to AP's capital city now. People in Kurnool also feel that their city is ideal location for capital. They are right, to some extent. Kurnool has a pleasant climate when compared to most of the cities in Andhra Pradesh.

As it is away from the coast, cyclone threat is minimal. So, it's a safe bet and has all contours that come to our mind when we think of features that made Hyderabad and Bengaluru into the most successful and fast-growing capitals in India.

The city is also in proximity of Hyderabad (220 km) and Bengaluru (360 km). Above all, Kurnool has vacant lands around it and most of them are not ideal for cultivation. If the AP government opts for Kurnool, it can develop Visakhapatnam and Vijayawada as commercial and industrial hubs.

It should take inspiration from the success story of Sri City in Chittoor district and emulate its strategy for developing commercial and industrial hubs in AP. But strangely, Kurnool residents feel that it is near-impossible for their city to get capital as the political leadership is very weak in city and district.

If the Jagan government is keen on developing backward areas, it should make Kurnool as capital. That will give a big boost to drought prone Rayalaseema region.

But going by the indications from the AP government thus far, Visakhapatnam is likely to emerge as the winner in the capital city race as it is expected to get executive capital, which will in all probability be considered as the capital for AP.

Visakhapatnam as capital is not a bad move, but the choice may not go down well with Rayalaseema people as they will be forced to travel for anywhere between 700 to 900 km to reach the capital. YSRCP is the dominant political player in the Land of Rayalas, so it may face political ramifications there.

The Jagan government's plan to offer AP High Court to Kurnool may not enthuse people in long run. The overall positive impact will be insignificant if HC benches are set up in Visakhapatnam and Amaravati.

The govt's plan for decentralisation of administrative machinery may not pay much dividends in short-term. Further, there will be backlash in coastal region if capital is moved out of Amaravati.

Questions will also be raised on nearly Rs 10,000 crore that has been spent on Amaravati so far as some feel it is the tax-payers' money that will go waste.

Interestingly, some wrongly cite Hyderabad as an example of why there is a need to go for decentralised administration. That's the-glass-is-half-full syndrome.

The problem with Hyderabad is not the concentration of administration and capital city. Industrial clusters, labour intensive IT sector and commercial base are also located in the city.

That's reason why Hyderabad is in ever-expansion mode. The ideal combination for any State in India is to have a single capital city which improves ease of doing government business, and to spread the industrial and commercial development to other parts of the State. That's how balanced development could be achieved.

However, if Jagan government takes a decision fast and sticks to it, people will calm down and move on. Indians have a great quality ingrained in their DNA. They have an incorrigible belief in fate.

If something goes against their wish, they feel bad for sometime, blame their fate for the misfortune and go back to their daily chores that help them make a living.

But as mentioned earlier, people will not take things lying down if the Jagan govt's plans go terribly wrong on capital and they don't see tangible results by next elections.

The bottom line is simple. YSRCP and its leader YS Jagan Mohan Reddy has the liberty and right to make all the decisions when it comes to capital city or cities. If his decisions go wrong, he will pay the political price, no one else.

If his decisions help majority of people and make them feel happy, he will reap political dividends, no one else. But in my opinion, multiple administrative capitals are not a good idea.

A single capital will benefit financially weak Andhra Pradesh immensely and at faster pace. But it's Jagan's call and he has to decide whether he will go with one capital or many.

However, his decision on the capital city will be the most-defining moment in his political career. So is for Andhra Pradesh and its future. AP needs a capital city badly, isn't it?