Cryptic Putin keeps West on the edge

Fears that Europe is standing on the precipice of a deadly new conflict have prompted a flurry of diplomacy of late, apart from forcing a lot of rethink among some of the countries in it. Media reports from the tensed up zone suggest tens of thousands of Russian troops massing near the Ukrainian border, convoys of tanks, and a deadly escalation in the grinding trench war in eastern Ukraine.

These storm clouds on Europe's eastern flank are causing grave alarm in Washington and across the continent. "We're now seeing the largest concentration of Russian forces on Ukraine's borders since 2014," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the other day after flying to NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. "That is a deep concern not only to Ukraine, but to the United States." Vladimir Putin feels that there is no positive reaction on the main issue from the US or NATO. The main problem for the Russia is its "clear position on the inadmissibility of further expansion of NATO to the East and the deployment of strike weapons that could threaten the territory of the Russian Federation."

Tensions between Moscow and Kyiv are at their highest in years, with a large Russian troop buildup near the shared borders of the two former Soviet republics. Russia has repeatedly denied it is planning an invasion but has argued that NATO support for Ukraine – including increased weapons supplies and military training – constitutes a growing threat on its western flank. Is Vladimir Putin about to invade Ukraine, as the massing Russian troops on its borders suggest? Or is he bluffing, to extort concessions from his neighbour and the West? No one can be sure of Putin's intentions. Even his own foreign minister seems to be kept guessing.

But, if fighting is about to break out, the world needs to understand the stakes. Putin, perhaps, is planning a full-scale invasion to overthrow the government. Or does he simply wish to annex more territory in eastern Ukraine to link his country with Crimea? Possible. Crimea itself was a Ukrainian peninsula that Putin grabbed in 2014. Somehow, he seems to be intent on teaching Ukraine's forces a lesson even so to back separatists in Donbas. Putin could be right in thinking that a full-scale war could be a disaster for his country but a small one would force Ukraine's Westward drift. Just in case.

What happens if Russia prefers a full-scale war? Apart from casualties, this would signal the first toppling of a democratically elected European government by an invader that could also trigger a long-running insurgency. Economically, this could sound almost a death-knell to Russia, already deprived of the crucial American high-tech components. Putin also has to worry about his own investments world-wide and his savings on foreign soil. On his part, the US President, Joe Biden has declared Washington's intent and "unwavering commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity" and "called on Russia to de-escalate tensions." What is Putin up to? Is he putting Biden's resolve to a test? (Let us not forget that it is about NATO, too). Or is he blissfully ignorant of the consequences?