Maha battle fluid: All keep their fingers crossed

As the campaign for the Maha battle of 2024 nears end, the big question is who will win Maharashtra. Normally by now, pollsters and media would have been hyper, making their own predictions. But after the two major shocks the pollsters and media received, one in Lok Sabha elections and then in Haryana Assembly polls, it would be disastrous to make any straight prediction more so regarding Maharashtra where there are different aspects which could impact the results.

The factors involved in the electoral battle in Maharashtra are more like those in local body elections. It will be a multipolar election. There are many districts which are controlled by powerful families, and it would be a fight between the families. There is division among those families. While one section supports MVA, the other is with BJP.

Another unique factor this time is that there has been a steep increase in soyabean cultivation which is much more than the traditional sugarcane and cotton for which Maharashtra is famous. Farmers are angry that they are not getting MSP for soyabean. Onion farmers, too, want more concessions and less market interference from the government. They complain that neither the Congress nor Maha Vikas Aghadi is bothered by the problems of the farmers. They are busier with a failed narrative of “Constitution Khatre mein Hai.” This could adversely affect the prospects of MVA in the areas where sugarcane and onions are grown. There appears to be no end to farmers’ suicides.

While the octogenarian leader Sharad Pawar got his act right in ticket allotment and wants to achieve a high strike rate and is working in that direction, the Congress has been busy waving a red book and does not seem to have learnt any lessons from Haryana polls. There are many rebels and independents in the fray this time. There has been a marked shift in Maha politics. Earlier, it used to be a straight fight between two parties Congress and BJP supported by Shiv Sena but now there are about six parties and Congress appears to have mastered the act of hitting self-goals. Something is seriously wrong with the think-tank of the grand old party.

Another major issue that could impact the polls is growing inequities in many districts. The socio-economic indices here are much below national average. In areas like Sholapur, there has been no industrial growth and hence there are no jobs and migrations continue. Who would adversely be affected by this issue remains to be seen. Neither the MVA nor the Mahayuti seem to have focused their attention on addressing these issues.

The Eknath Shinde factor certainly cannot be ignored. He is undoubtedly a very popular leader, but it remains to be seen if he can convert his popularity into votes. His ‘Ladli Bahin’, a scheme to give Rs 1,500 per poor women, has become popular but it does not mean Mahayuti will get all the women votes. Women are keeping their cards close to their chest.

In short, it is going to be a battle between Udhav Sena v/s Shinde Sena. A lot would depend on who gets the majority in Mumbai Konkan and Thane belt. Similarly, it remains to be seen if Ajit Pawar can cut into Sharad Pawar’s vote bank. There are over 25 independent candidates and smaller parties who can play spoilsport. So, the possibility of a hung assembly cannot be ruled out. But then, it is dangerous to state anything affirmatively. One must wait till November 23. Let the excitement continue.