Nuclear saber rattling in Russia-Ukraine war

The Russian-Ukraine war, which has been dragging on for over 1,000 days, has just sounded a chilling threat of nuclear war. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling has put the world, more so Europe, on the edge.

It is a dire threat to a world weary of disruption of food supply chains and spike in energy prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24th February 2022, eight years after it took Crimea, claiming it to be ‘ancestral Russian land’. Russia cited alleged genocide in Russian-dominated regions of Ukraine. But the bigger reason is its fear of existential threat from NATO expansion in Eastern Europe. However, the western thinkers claim Putin entertains ambitions of restoring the territorial integrity of the USSR. Moscow says it merely insists on legally-binding guarantees by NATO on desisting from any military activity in Eastern Europe and also not admitting Ukraine.

The largest and deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II has claimed hundreds of thousands of civilian and military casualties and made equal numbers of people displaced. Many economies have since been hit hard by inflationary trends being stoked by the war. Even so, the international community is yet to galvanise its efforts, the fervent appeals of the UN notwithstanding, to unitedly prevail upon Russia to cease the war.

The latest calls by Ukraine alleging an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile attack by Russia, and the latter’s warning over Ukraine’s use of American and British long-range missiles have raised the fears of the war turning into a global war. Putin has also, disturbingly, altered the nuclear doctrine of his country, allowing use of nuclear weapons on a non-nuclear state if it is supported by nuclear powers.

It is surprising that despite widespread death and destruction and impact on global economy, the just concluded G20 summit in Brazil only took note of the humanitarian suffering in Ukraine and the importance of territorial integrity, stopping short of naming Russia. There is no forceful appeal from the Rio summit which even omitted Indian PM Modi’s big message to Putin that ‘it is not an era of war.’

Amidst such softening of concerns about the war, Kyiv’s appeals for urgent intervention by the global community, in wake of alleged use of a nuclear-capable ICBM by Moscow, may not find takers – at least immediately.

It baffles many why the West should refuse to provide security guarantees to Moscow so it can halt its invasion. Nevertheless, Donald Trump’s historic comeback and his vow to stop the Ukraine war raises hopes for a beleaguered world already beset by the increasing intensity and regularity of extreme weather events. A war against climate change is the need of the war, and not any gruesome wars such as those by Russia or Israel.

Countries affected by the wars and a world seized by fears of anymore escalation of wars anywhere anxiously pin hopes on the new American President to push for peace. “We’re going to work on the Middle East, and we’re going to work hard on Russia and Ukraine. It’s got to stop,” vowed Trump only days ago. Any West’s assurances to Moscow should be accompanied by a red line so it will not repeat its aggression a few years down the line. For this to happen, the west will want to weigh whether Ukraine’s neutrality will see Putin restrain his territorial ambitions. As for Ukraine, though their President is setting tough terms for peace, no one desires peace more than the Ukrainians. In the end, Trump’s return augurs well for peace at least in Ukraine and, in that respect, for the entire world staring at more devastating fallout of the prolonged war.