Prachanda may queer the pitch for India

"Warmest congratulations Comrade Prachanda on being elected as the Prime Minister of Nepal. The unique relationship between India & (and) Nepal is based on deep cultural connect & (and) warm people-to-people ties," Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on Twitter, adding: "I look forward to working together with you to further strengthen this friendship." But, the outgoing Prime Minister Oli's emergence as the king-maker is likely to cause concern for India.

Nepal is crucially located between India and China and the former's increasing dependence on the latter is already a matter of concern for its southern neighbour. Nepal is the world's 45th-biggest country in the world, with a population of 29 million people. The country's total area is almost equal to that of Bangladesh and is double Sri Lanka's. Thus, if only for its size, Nepal is too big a nation-state to be a vassal. The country takes pride in its history of never having been colonised and has an important geostrategic position, with India and China on either side. However, contrary to conventional notions of a harmonious diplomatic relationship, there is a sharp difference in the way Nepal and India view each other.

Here is a case where one cannot put the entire blame on Nepal and its opportunistic politicians. Indo-Nepal ties have suffered a serious dent in the past under the Congress rule due to mishandling of Nepal's pride. Now, with China making inroads here, India needs to wake up at least now. India could run into trouble over Nepal, American Nepal observers have already warned. China on its part prefers to wield its economic clout on Nepal to keep India under check. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken various initiatives and has often indicated that he would address Nepal's concerns. India should not forget that Nepal always exploited its geo-strategic advantages through its foreign policy. All the same, it cannot fully ignore India's concerns too.

Nepal and China have already announced their intent to get engaged more seriously with each other and are evolving ways and means to do so. During Oli's visit to China sometime back, South Asia expert in Beijing Hu Shisheng said, "Our [China's] policy is clear – if you [India] want to work with us you are welcome, if not, then at least do not obstruct our work." Nepal is keen on challenging India with regard to its river water treaties and border disputes rather than on questioning China over its silent 'salami slicing' in chipping away Nepal's land slowly but steadily. India's warnings on this count won't be worthwhile as Nepal would be keener to question India rather. We also have our trade and transit issues with Nepal unlike China.

Nepal simply needs Chinese help in meeting its challenges. Other issues could come later. But the priorities are clear and even Nepalis won't have any objection in this matter. Politically speaking, Nepal's communists are no friends of India and even its Congress is not the same as the earlier one. To wean away Nepal from China, India needs to spend its resources more and more. That is something India is not willing to do. Neighbourhoods get tougher with India with the advent of Prachanda now.