Time to recalibrate India's Afghan policy

Afghanistan is slipping fast into theTaliban hands. More than a dozen key cities and provinces are now under its control and the Afghan army is yielding its space faster and sooner than expected. An American estimation now says that in another 90 days, the takeover by the Taliban would be complete. What is India's role now in the region? India has been a friend of Afghanistan unlike Pakistan which only has been interested in the religious-extremist forces there. India has invested heavily in the development projects in Afghanistan and always preferred the Taliban out of the picture.

India's Afghanistan policy, especially after the 1979 Soviet invasion, has worked on the premise that an external friendly power would do the heavy lifting in Afghanistan's security and political sector.

India, meanwhile, would invest in soft sectors, such as infrastructure development, and would limit its involvement in the security domain. In the 1990s, India's Afghanistan policy was tied to Iran and Russia, and a regional alignment between the three states was strategically viable. Though the states had differences, they supported the United Front of the so-called Northern Alliance against the Taliban. This allowed India to avoid direct involvement in the conflict. That was potentially an acceptable choice when other major actors involved were behaving in line with India's interests and aims.

But today, the context is different. Russia's and Iran's approaches are no longer in accord with India's. Russia's ongoing outreach to the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan has raised concerns that Moscow could be deviating from earlier approaches that it had shared with India. Moscow and Tehran are challenging India's advocacy of an Afghan-led, Afghan owned, and Afghan-controlled reconciliation process. India had relied on US support to Kabul for maintaining stability, and it is largely focused on what it views as the threat from Pakistan.

Now that the US is out of the scene having withdrawn from the soil of Afghanistan, how should India weigh its options? This shifting context means that India should start to rethink its long-held stances on Afghanistan and take an active role in shaping the diplomatic approach to the conflict. The fact is that India can't work alone. India by itself cannot play a major role in the security situation of Afghanistan. India cannot afford to send its forces to Afghanistan.

Once the country is grabbed by the Taliban, India will not be welcome there. Pakistan will have its leverage through the jihadi forces it trained and sheltered all these years and does so, even now. China and the Taliban have already come close and they have a firm understanding. Russia is now friends with the Taliban too. All this only adds a new dimension to India's security concerns. Pakistan will always think of dragging the Taliban forces into its Kashmir conflict with India and with the blessings of China, it could trouble us further.

Taliban thinks India is not neutral and hence will not prefer to even talk to us in future. It is not just a diplomatic concern for India, but more importantly, a security concern. Unless something transpires in between and Pakistan falls out of Taliban favour, things don't look up for India. There is no point in depending on external force's intervention to settle issues in India's favour. India has to think mature and act accordingly, all on its own.