Trump triumps: What to expect in next 4 years

Never say die even when odds are heavily stacked against you. Donald Trump, 78, who has just staged what is being hailed as the greatest comeback in the American political history epitomises this spirit. A plethora of illuminating adjectives have been used, much deservingly, to depict his thumping of Democrats to seize power for second time – a non-consecutive win though – to be the 47th President of the United States. This after facing charges of instigating a violent insurrection at the US Capitol to overturn the results of the 2020 election, conviction of felony charges and survival of two assassination attempts. His extraordinary achievement also includes a majority in the Senate.

For next four years, Trump will preside over the fate of theUnited States pining for a healing touch to its ordinary folks reeling under inflation, soaring rentals and shrinking jobs. His policies, stance and measures on the foreign policy front will impinge upon global peace, world economy – and, of course, the elephant in the room, climate change. Vexed by Joe Biden’s inept handling of economic crisis, they veered to the don, ignored his acerbic tongue and elected him to find a solution to their woes. On the jobs front, Americans are palpably growing restive over loss of jobs to immigrants. Illegal immigrants reached record levels under Biden regime. They seemed to ignore his racist views that migrants were eating people’s pets, and voted for his vow to seal the borders. His ‘America first’ cry resonated among them. He also made right sounds about war and peace at a time many people were sore over the US spending billions to keep the war machine of Ukraine going. Trump loosened his tongue, was never short of histrionics and conspiracy theories.

This will not suffice to make a full sense of Trump’s historic win, but we should look to what is next.

In terms of foreign policy, Trump may push for an end to Russia-Ukraine war, likely at a great cost to Ukraine. His double-speak on peace would be evident should he support Benjamin Netanyahu, who is committing genocide in Gaza and Lebanon. “I have done a lot for Israel,” he reminded during campaign. It was he who moved US embassy to Jerusalem, recognised Golan Heights, and even rescinded Iran nuclear deal. But, it is China which will attract his seething, though he could do little to hurt its economy much or diminish its significant trade with the US. But expect tariffs on Chinese imports.

As for India, Trump would want it to be a pivot in Indo-Pacific. Of course, he enjoys cordial relations with Indian PM Narendra Modiwho will use his good offices to offset any negative fallout of Trump’s vacillation in geopolitics. As for Indians, the denial rate of H-1B applications, swinging from 6% to 24% under the previous Trump regime, is enough of an indicator.

A climate change denier that he is, do not expect him to pull out of Paris Pact yet again and pull the US out of the unprecedented global race to renewable energy adoption. Extreme weather events are all around for him to see. Back-to-back hurricanes pummelled the US just recently. That green energy is cheaper and more reliable than oil, gas and coal, he will realise soon. A change of heart is possible. “After all, we have been through together, we stand on the verge of the four greatest years in American history... You watch, it’s going to be so good, it’s going to be so much fun. It’ll be nasty a little bit at times, and maybe at the beginning, in particular, but it’s going to be something.” He said it.