Portends of a wider war in Middle East

Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu’s intransigence, paying no heed to pleas of world leaders to halt the unprecedented spree of destruction for months in Gaza and the latest havoc in Lebanon, is stretching the tiny nation to its limits in continuing its war on terror – beyond any justification in terms of destruction and death. He still has a chance to buy some peace by reaching a ceasefire with Hamas in exchange for hostages.

With its major proxies facing annihilation, and meted out humiliation by Israel through assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh right on its soil and after the latest killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Iran has directly attacked its sworn enemy. It fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv. However, after blasting away as many as 180 missiles at Israel, Iran cannot simply say the operation is ‘concluded and rational,’ and expect no reprisals from Israel. The use of hypersonic missiles for the first time certainly escalates the threat.

After the October 7, 2023 terror attack by Hamas, killing hundreds and taking several hostage, Netanyahu expectedly unleashed a reign of death and destruction upon Gaza, which had left the world in shock and dismay.

The relentless pounding of Gaza sucked Hezbollah into the conflict. Though it offered to cease its attacks on northern Israel, which led to thousands fleeing to the south, Netanyahu went ahead with a massive bombardment of Lebanon and is now readying for a ground invasion, too.

That said, Iran’s obduracy is also defying reason. It called the missile attack on Tuesday ‘legal, rational and legitimate’. It is a high risk gamble. Tehran seems to have brushed aside the possibility of Israel bringing its war to its doorsteps. Till April this year, both countries avoided directly attacking each other’s territories. Iran’s drone attack and Israel’s response changed all that.

How Israel will react to the Iran attack will set the course for a future conflict. Netanyahu made a direct appeal to Iranians that Israel considers only the ruling regime as their enemy. It implies he may choose selective targets such as government and nuclear facilities. This, he hopes, will pave way for a regime change with mellowed reaction from ordinary Iranians. But, should Iran become nuclear in the meantime, or its nuke facilities be attacked, the consequences will be worse than any we have seen so far.

Global shipping lines have to brace for a major disruption in Red Sea under stepped up attacks from Houthis. For its part, Iran can easily choke the Strait of Hormuz, which connects Persian Gulf to Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea and sees a fifth of the world’s oil and more than a quarter of the world’s LNG trade. With any inflation in oil and gas, world economies will be once again in turmoil, triggering recessions with shocking fallouts in many nations. Iran banks on Russia and both recently strengthened their bonds. It is terrifying to imagine US and Russia taking entering a regional conflict and taking sides.

Time is, thus, running out for nations, either close to Iran or Israel, or both, to prevail upon them to draw back. In the case of India, while it unequivocally condemned the Hamas terrorist attack, it also strongly deplored the loss of lives in Gaza in Israel offensive, and called for dialogue to resolve the Palestine issue – the elephant in the room. India enjoys good relations with Iran and needs it to access Central Asia. Israel stood by it and helped it during Kargil War. With long-term divergence in strategic interests with both countries, it may be time for India to aid peace efforts. Prime Minister Modi has spoken to Netanyahu, raising hopes.