Swaying the voters’ views & moods

The average Indian voter, today, is mature and expected to exercise franchise in a wise and informed manner. Still, can it be said that the role of money, and other temptations such as liquor are entirely things of the past and that many would make, on their own, the final choice? I am afraid the jury is still out. Venkaiah Naidu, formerly the Vice President of the country, said on his first visit to Hyderabad after occupying that distinguished office that the three basic requirements for a public meeting arranged in the context of an election campaign are the 3Bs, namely, bottle, batta and biryani!

The Union Public Service Commission (UPSC) selects people everyyear for the Indian Administrative Service (IAS), among many other All India and Central Services. The crucial word, here, is ‘select’. The persons ‘selected,’ however, spend the rest of their career over the next 3 to 4 decades, serving under ‘elected’ persons i.e., the representatives of people. That those elected should control, and supervise, the functions of agencies that conduct such selections is one of the essential features of the institutional arrangements in the governance framework of a democratic architecture.

Among the most significant achievements, which India has to her credit, after independence, is the regular conduct of free, fair and impartial elections, the very cornerstone of a vibrant, and robust, democracy.

Long before Abraham Lincoln uttered the famous words, “of the people, by the people and for the people….”, in his historic speech at Gettysburg, as far back as in the 6th century BCE, the oldest known form of democracy had struck deep in ancient Greece. A somewhat different, but robust, form of government by elected representatives was also prevalent in Venice in the 13th century BCE.

An election takes place in various phases. Once the aspiring contestants have thrown their hats into the ring, the period of ‘campaigning’ begins, in which each candidate canvases the voters, with written, and or oral, communications, explaining to them why they should vote for him or her, or the party to which the candidate belongs,.

Modern political campaigns operate on a large scale thanks to the advent of digital technology and the social media, leading to the emergence of the new concept of political consultancy services, which is the subject of this week’s article.

I first came to learn of the increasingly important role these firms were playing, when I was approached by two youngsters, for introductions to important leaders of different political parties in the country. And, to my considerable surprise, I found none of the leaders I spoke to were averse to the idea. Apparently, the concept had already got on and parties were convinced that their approaches needed to be modern and contemporary, based more on science and analysis than on institution and faith.

The domain of political consultancy existed before but was not structured and also did not get the limelight it garnered later, during and post BJP’s win. At present in India, there are over 100 such consultancies with some success to their name. Many politicians in India have accepted the new emerging way of electioneering and have started relying on the same. They become the soul of any party/individual by giving them a triangulated information (through primary research, survey, media and social media analysis etc.), performance of campaign, performance of cadre, sentiment analysis, SWOT analysis of party/individual and opposition, on a real-time basis.

The whole idea of campaigning revolves around a message, a messenger and a format. A message is necessary in order to set a narrative or to push any agendaat the grassroots; this is a very important aspect that sets the whole tone of the electioneering. A messenger is a leader, cadres or different media. They conduct through the social media, door-to-door campaigns, rallies, public meetings, nukkad natak, online etc. The use of Interactive Voice Response System (IVRS), usage of surrogate accounts and pagers are popular in that contest. Consulting firms usually conduct in-depth analyses of the political, historical, social, and economic landscapes of regions. The objectives are to understand current voter preferences through, the conduct of large-scale surveys and opinion polls.

The consultancy firms craft compelling content that resonates with different voter segments and go on plan and coordinate candidate tours, speeches, and public appearances. Tjeu analyse the impact of campaigns and adjust strategies accordingly. As the campaign progresses, the firms monitor social media for assessing public sentiment and campaign effectiveness. Crisis management, or preparing for, and responding to unforeseen events or crises is an important aspect during that phase for developing contingency plans for potential scandals, or negative press. The firms also undertake training of spokespersons, and leaders, on handling crisis situations and put in place rapid response mechanisms to mitigate adverse impacts.

Quite apart from the need for, or the importance of, consultancy services, one thing digital technology has done is to seriously hamper the Election Commission’s ability to monitor compliance to the embargo on canvassing in the last 48 hours before polling. While the election campaigns of today often see public meetings attended by a large number of potential voters, canvassing by candidates on a much smaller scale and on an intimate basis is also known. Very famous in this context is what is known as the ‘Speaker’s Corner’ in Hyde Park, London, a traditional site for public speeches and debates since the 18th century. An act of Parliament in 1872 set aside the Corner for public speaking, and even today on a Sunday morning, crowds gather there to listen to enthusiasts expounding their views. There are a few restrictions, except that the content of the speech should not be unlawful. In fact, historic figures, such as Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin, and George Orwell, were known often to have used the context to demonstrate the importance of free speech.

I remember how I made it a point to visit the spot during one of my visits to London. Before we end this rather entertaining piece, I would like to share with the readers a question I was asked recently. The average Indian voter, today, is mature and expected to exercise franchise in a wise and informed manner. Still, can it be said that the role of money, and other temptations such as liquor are entirely things of the past and that many would make, on their own, the final choice? I am afraid the jury is still out. I recall no less than Venkaiah Naidu, formerly the Vice President of the country, telling a large gathering on his first visit to Hyderabad after occupying that distinguished office, that the three basic requirements for a public meeting arranged in the context of an election campaign are the 3Bs, namely, bottle, batta and biryani! The reference, undoubtedly, was to parties other than his own. But, then, one wonders how far the scientific and modern management techniques help in influencing the ultimate verdict of the vox populi.

(The writer was formerly Chief Secretary, Government of Andhra Pradesh)