High stakes polls for nat’l parties

Rewind to August 5, 2019. With unusual aggression, Union Home Minister Amit Shah went about his task in Parliament to Abrogate Article 370 of the Constitution that confers Special Status on Jammu & Kashmir and bifurcation of the State into two Union Territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. Considered a masterstroke, this sudden, unexpected move of the Modi Government sparked euphoria across the nation with people confident that normalcy will be restored in the valley. Five years down the line, the situation remains the same with the civilians still being targeted by the militants from across the borders. The law and order situation continues to be grim. Is the Union Territory of J&K back on the growth and development trajectory?

The Assembly elections in the State will be fought on the issue of the Abrogation of Article 370 and whether it has come as a saviour for the residents of the State. In a way, the results will be a referendum on the revolutionary step taken by the Modi government as these are the first elections after the Abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019 and the first in the newly-formed Union Territory. Though the Congress has supported Article 370 due to political compulsion, its ally National Conference has totally opposed it. The PDP, however, is now supporting it as it cannot backtrack from its earlier stand.

At present, all the political parties are against the BJP including the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) leader Mehbooba Mufti, with whom the BJP had forged an alliance to come to power. The Congress and the National Conference will fight the elections together, giving a tough fight to the BJP. While the National Conference will contest 51 seats, the Congress will be pitted against the BJP in the Jammu region on a one-on-one basis. Interestingly, as a political masterstroke, the Modi Government has increased the number of seats in Jammu, where the Hindus are in majority, from 37 to 43 seats. While in the Valley, in the delimitation exercise, only one seat has been added, raising it from 46 to 47 seats.

Winning J&K is prestigious for any party. The BJP will lose no time in granting Statehood to J&K if it emerges victorious. However, if it loses, the Union Territory will continue to be directly administered by the Centre through the Lieutenant-Governor. The Union Home Ministry had recently amended the Transaction of Business Rules to give more powers to the Lieutenant-Governor of Jammu & Kashmir.

The exit from the Congress of its senior-most leader, popular face and former Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, who floated his own Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), also came as a shot-in-the-arm for the BJP. However, ever since Azad has shown his reluctance to campaign, owing to his illness, his party candidates have lost interest, with several of them withdrawing from the contest. As per the political analysts, Azad can be propped up by the BJP, in case the latter scores an impressive score in the region. Azad’s party has so far failed to take off as all its candidates were defeated in the Lok Sabha elections.

By entering into an alliance with the National Conference, the Congress has brightened up its chances of victory. The Congress polled 19.3 per cent votes, while the National Conference got 22.2 per cent vote during the Lok Sabha elections. During the parliamentary elections, the NC, PDP and the Congress together led in 46 of the 90 Assembly segments. The BJP and its ally, the People’s Conference, led in 30 Assembly seats.

The Congress recently named former PDP leader Tariq Hameed Karra as Jammu & Kashmir PCC President. On the other hand, the party picked two Hindus, Tara Chand and Raman Bhalla, as the J&KPCC Working Presidents, with eye on the 43 seats in the Jammu region. The Congress strategy is to dent the BJP vote bank in Jammu, even as it expects the National Conference to fare well in the Valley, in order to cobble up the numbers.

Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi has commenced his campaign for the party in J&K. For the Congress, winning any election, especially in J&K, will be a morale-booster, which is keen to signal the inevitable downfall of the Modi Government at the Centre.

In Haryana, it’s going to be a bipolar contest between the Congress and the BJP. The elections which were slated to be held on October 1, have been postponed to October 5, as per the wishes of the State Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini of BJP, who feared that the Bishnoi community may not take part in the polls due to their Asoj Amavasya festival celebrations.

The BJP has annoyed the community by denying ticket to Kuldeep Singh Bishnoi from the Adampur Assembly constituency of Hisar. Prior to the Lok Sabha elections, Brijendra Singh, another Bishnoi leader, had quit BJP and was elected from the Congress ticket.

The Congress is looking forward to turning the tables on the BJP in Haryana due to multiple reasons. The farmers’ agitation, combined with the discontent among Government employees and shoddy treatment given to the women wrestlers by the Modi Government add up to the anti-incumbency mood among the voters. With Olympian wrestler Vinesh Phogat along with Bajrang Punia likely to contest on the Congress ticket, the election is likely to grow more intense between the two political parties. Both of them, who are considered youth & sports icons, would be star campaigners for the Congress, thus giving much-required impetus to the party’s campaign. The controversy surrounding the humiliation meted out to the women wrestlers by the then BJP MP & Wrestling Federation Chief Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh is all likely to jolt the prospects of the BJP in these elections.

For Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi, these State Assembly polls of J&K and Haryana, being held soon after the Lok Sabha elections, will be a testimony of his growing clout and the diminishing charisma of Prime Minister Modi. Rahul Gandhi is desperate to defeat the BJP at any cost. For this, he is even inclined to go against the State leadership of Haryana and forge an alliance with Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Coming together of two alliance partners of the INDIA bloc will prevent splitting of votes against the BJP.

Surprisingly, this time round, there is no talk of Hindutva politics by the BJP leadership. Having exhausted the Mandir issue in the Lok Sabha elections, where ironically the construction of Ram Mandir failed to bring votes to the ruling party in Ayodhya itself, the BJP is refraining from including it in its agenda. Though the anti-incumbency of the State Government will play a dominant role, the Centre’s attitude towards the farmers and the wrestlers will also influence the voting pattern of the people.

(The writer is Delhi-based senior journalist and political commentator. Views are personal.)