Ukraine: A collateral political damage for US, EU?

New Delhi: October 7, 2023 will be a date that not only Israel and the Middle East will remember, but Ukraine too -- for it seemed to mark a swing in its fortunes. The Western attention and support it was relying on to hold on against Russia swung to the Middle East, and it became a “secondary” consideration.

If that was not enough, Kiev had to endure the added mortification of seeing its requirements being staked on the altar of domestic politics, as in the US, or as bargaining chips in regional organisations, in the EU, as it acknowledged the failure of its much-touted, Western-arms backed summer “counter-offensive”.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba has admitted that sceptical voices who seriously doubted that Kiev’s counteroffensive would result in the collapse of the Russian military have ultimately been proved right, and his country senses a wave of pessimism rising in the West subsequently. Acknowledging that the current phase of the conflict “is not easy for Ukraine or for our partners”, Kuleba, however, sought to make a pitch for renewed and continuous support. “Everyone wants quick, Hollywood-style breakthroughs”, but only consistent Western support would result in Kiev achieving significant results, Kuleba wrote in an opinion piece in US journal “Foreign Affairs”.

His words proved to be prophetic.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had long been an ubiquitous presence at global events apart from his visits to various friendly nations to obtain funds, weapons, and action against Russia, found that his charm seems to have waned, drawing jeers from Russia, which called him the “Beggarman of Kiev”. With Republic members in the US Congress blocking President Joe Biden’s $100 billion-plus bill for aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan as well as domestic security, Zelensky dashed to Washington to make a personal bid to convince the doubters – but to no avail.

All he obtained out of the proposed $61 billion was a meagre $200 million under the President’s discretionary powers and a further $300 million from the overall US defence budget.

The Republicans are not only blocking further aid to Ukraine – to extract major concessions from the Democrats on border security and immigration restrictions – but also questioning the use of funds already given, after the dismal failure of Kiev’s much-touted summer “counter-offensive”.

Tied to this are questions about dealings of Biden’s son, Hunter, in Ukraine. Europe, though, was better for Zelensky with some aid promised by a few countries, including the the UK and Denmark, and the consolation prize of the EU’s announcement of beginning of accession talks.

This only came after sleight of hand by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who persuaded Hungarian President and staunch holdout Viktor Orban to “go out of the room to grab a coffee” so unanimity could be achieved on the invitation. On the other hand, Orban ensured freeing of a third of blocked EU funds for his “acquiescence”, while the Hungarian leader, who has vocally opposed Ukraine’s induction, has noted that he still has “75 chances” to block its membership.

For good measure, he also opposed the new EU aid package of 50 billion euros for Ukraine. Then, Austria opposed the 12th and latest package of sanctions against Russia until it got a quid pro quo in the form of the removal of a prominent Austrian bank, which is still operating in Russia, from a “Black List” maintained by Ukraine.

However, what should worry Ukraine and its fervent backers in the West is not only these tactical moves, but the collateral damage that they are inflicting willy-nilly on themselves.

In the US, Biden and his Democrats are left with an agonising dilemma – abandon Kiev or their principles and more core constituencies in an election year, after the furious reaction of the Arab-Americans and progressives to the blanket support to Israel as it pulverises Gaza and represses the West Bank.

Similarly, in Europe, the blanket support to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are leading to economic woes, where not only are people getting restive against the privations that they have to undergo but it is impacting politics.

Beyond the concessions to Ukrainian farm produce and truckers which led to blockades in Eastern Europe, including such stalwart backers like Poland, or the obduracy of nations like Hungary, joined by Slovakia, following its recent elections, and Austria, the more pressing concern is of the changing political configurations.

The economic distress is fuelling the rise of populist, right-wing parties, as exemplified by the victory of Geert Wilders’ PVV in The Netherlands, and of the AfD in Germany - and they are all manifestly Euro-sceptical.

The question now is not only if Ukraine will escape its quagmire, but whether it will drag the US and EU into it too?