Bengaluru: Bajrang Dal ban in manifesto to reverse Congress fortune, says internal survey

Bengaluru : Only a few days left for voting. At this stage, many events have taken place in the state where the mind of the voters has changed. Among these, the Bajrang Dal ban proposal is also one. The proposal to ban the Bajrang Dal in the manifesto of the Congress party came too late, the BJP vented out its anger. Pro-Hindu organisations are retaliating by chanting Hanuman Chalisa across the state. Are all these developments helping the BJP win votes? Will the Congress party suffer setbacks? This will be known only after the results are announced.

From the beginning, there were talks of the Congress party leading this time. Accordingly, the Congress party, which had announced many guarantees, was moving ahead with enthusiasm. The campaign of Kharge, D K Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah team was also making noise. Meanwhile, the venomous snake statement on PM Modi put some brakes on the momentum of the Congress. However, the issue of banning Bajrang Dal, which was proposed in the manifesto of the Congress party, has now become a big headache for the party. Like Prime Minister Modi, BJP leaders are saying ‘Bajrang Bali Ki Jai’. Thus, as instructed by the High Command, the Congress leaders conducted a survey in the state.

As the Congress party itself has said, the issue of banning Bajrang Dal has reached 7 percent of the voters in the state. An internal survey of the Congress party itself suggests that there may be some setback for the Congress party in the areas where the BJP has a strong base, especially in the coastal areas. The survey says that one and a half thousand votes may be lost in four constituencies of coastal Karnataka. In other places, it seems that there is no big impact. However, with only three days left for the polls, the Congress has come up with a different strategy.

If you see that the internal survey conducted by the Congress party itself said that the party may face a slight setback, it is clear that the Bajrang Dal ban issue has put a brake on the party’s gallop. In the meantime, private survey organizations are also mainly presenting the same issue in their full election surveys. The polls conducted after the distribution of tickets and the release of the manifesto indicate that BJP’s seat gains will increase. The Jan Ki Baat and private news channel polls released on May 4 suggested that the BJP could win 100 to 114 seats.

The Congress Party has also indicated that it may fall from 86 to 98 seats. The Jan Ki Baat survey says JDS can get only 20 to 26 seats. Looking at it this way, the Jan Ki Baat survey published last month on April 15 had predicted that the BJP could win 98 to 109 seats. Now BJP’s seat gain is indicating to increase.

An interesting statistic came out recently. It is a statistic of which party’s candidates have lost their deposits the most in the elections from 2004 to 2018. According to this calculation, since 2004, JDS candidates have lost 50 percent of their deposits, while BJP candidates have lost 25 percent of their deposits. On the other hand, only 6% of the Congress candidates have lost their deposits. These figures are only telling. The vote share of the Congress party is high. But, only the seat share is less. The Jan Ki Baat survey says that the Congress party’s vote share will be high this time as well. Even if the Congress party gets more votes than the BJP, the polls estimate that the number of seats it can win is less.

At election time, every word spoken by the leaders becomes important. Congress President Kharge’s words against Prime Minister Modi benefited the BJP in the recent Gujarat elections. Even now there is an analysis that venomous snake statement on Modi can benefit the BJP. Bajrang Dal’s ban proposal is making noise as if it is a problem for all these. Congress leaders have repeatedly defended their manifesto proposal. In response to this, pro-Hindu activists are chanting Hanuman Chalisa across the state. Bajrang Dal has no relation with Lord Hanuman and clear words of Congress leaders are also coming out.

At the same time, the strategy to prevent the Congress from losing ground in the elections has also been done quietly. We have to wait and see what effect this issue will have in the coming days.