2027 polls: Can Asaduddin Owaisi repeat Bihar’s success in UP

New Delhi: As Uttar Pradesh moves towards the 2027 Assembly election, Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) attempts at joining an anti-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bloc have again met a wall, and one question that crops up in political debates is whether it will upset the Opposition applecart in at least some seats.

In Bihar, AIMIM leaders stated that they sought a seat-sharing arrangement with the Mahagathbandhan before the 2025 election but were rebuffed. The party then fought separately, winning five seats in the Muslim-dominated border areas.

Owaisi has reportedly again expressed willingness to work with the anti-BJP camps, but appears to have met rejection, at least from the Samajwadi Party (SP)-led alliance. SP supremo Akhilesh Yadav seems inclined to keep the AIMIM at arm's length and prevent it from gaining a foothold among Muslim voters by refusing any formal tie-up.

Earlier, AIMIM contested independently in both the 2017 and 2022 state Assembly elections. Reports now say that SP and Congress have already distanced themselves from AIMIM as Owaisi explores alliance options with other blocs.

The key difference from Bihar is that the Seemanchal (border region) gave AIMIM a geographically concentrated Muslim base from which it won five seats in 2020 and repeated that performance in 2025.

Uttar Pradesh has not given AIMIM a comparable regional stronghold, and it has so far failed to establish a major electoral footprint there. But Bihar offers a cautionary note for SP on whether it can influence outcomes in tightly contested constituencies by splitting anti-BJP votes, even if it doesn't win a significant number of seats.

The SP calculation is based on the assumption that Muslim support remains strong enough with it, and bringing AIMIM into the alliance would only strengthen a potential long-term rival within the same voter base.

In Bihar, the AIMIM first made a breakthrough in 2020 when it won five Assembly seats in the same border areas, comprising Kishanganj, Araria, Purnea and Katihar districts. It projected itself as an alternative voice for Muslims who felt neglected by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan.

Critics accused Owaisi of dividing votes while the AIMIM stressed it was merely filling a representational vacuum. Observers later noted that the AIMIM presence fragmented Opposition votes in parts of the Seemanchal region and reduced the Mahagathbandhan’s ability to consolidate Muslim support.

However, the equation in Uttar Pradesh differs from Bihar's Seemanchal, where Muslims form a decisive bloc in several contiguous constituencies.

In Uttar Pradesh, that vote is spread across multiple regions, including Rohilkhand, western UP, parts of Awadh, and eastern districts. Moreover, since the 2022 Assembly election and the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the SP has emerged as the principal consolidation for anti-BJP Muslim votes.

Many Muslim voters prioritise electoral effectiveness over identity-based representation. This has presumably strengthened tactical voting in favour of the SP-led alliance, and Owaisi may face difficulty in convincing voters that supporting AIMIM would produce meaningful political representation rather than simply reducing the Opposition's chances.

Yet, seats in western Uttar Pradesh and districts bordering Nepal and Bihar, where Muslim populations are significant, could witness triangular contests if AIMIM fields strong candidates.

Meanwhile, there are reports of discussion on a possible AIMIM tie-up with Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) based on the so-called “Dalit-Muslim” or “Bhim-Meem” formula.

However, reports suggests that Mayawati yet remains reluctant, where her party has indicated that it would rather prefer to contest independently. Even if an understanding is eventually reached, its impact on Dalit voting may not be much since the BSP's core Jatav vote has historically shown loyalty to Mayawati rather than to alliance partners.

Past experiments involving Dalit-Muslim combinations have rarely produced subsequent vote transfers. Many non-Jatav Dalit groups have also displayed more fluid voting patterns in recent elections, with sections moving towards the BJP.

Overall, the Bihar experience demonstrates that AIMIM does not need to dominate an entire state to influence the overall result; a concentrated vote base in a limited geographical area can be enough to alter outcomes.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

IANS

[email protected]