2024 US Election: Battleground States and Early Voting Trends That Could Shape Harris vs Trump

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is expected to be close between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with results likely delayed due to the time needed to count votes.

In past elections, early and mail-in ballots have caused shifts in the lead as counting continues after Election Day.

Crucial battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, each have different rules for vote counting.

Early votes may favor Harris, but Trump could close the gap as Election Day ballots are counted.

Georgia: A large portion of ballots are cast early in person. Absentee ballots are processed before Election Day but counted after polls close. The initial count may favor Harris but could shift as Election Day votes are tallied.

Michigan: New rules allow for early vote processing, which should speed up results. However, a “red mirage” could occur if Trump leads early, with mail ballots later favoring Harris.

Nevada: Early and mail ballots can be counted before Election Day, but late-arriving mail ballots will likely favor Harris, possibly creating a “blue shift.”

North Carolina: Early and mail ballots will likely show Harris leading initially, with Trump potentially gaining ground as Election Day votes are counted. Overseas and military ballots could delay the outcome.

Pennsylvania: Mail ballots can’t be processed until Election Day, leading to delays. Early results might show Trump ahead, but Harris could catch up as mail ballots are counted.

Wisconsin: Like Pennsylvania, mail ballots are processed on Election Day, with large batches reported late at night. A shift toward Harris could happen as mail ballots are counted.

In these battleground states, results may not be clear for days, especially if the race is close, due to the time needed to count mail-in ballots and other late-arriving votes.