BJP tally dips in Rajya Sabha

New Delhi: The strength of the ruling BJP in the Rajya Sabha fell by four after as many nominated members - Rakesh Sinha, Ram Shakal, Sonal Mansingh, and Mahesh Jethmalani - completed their term.

All four were chosen - as non-aligned members - by President Droupadi Murmu on the advice of the ruling party, and formally allied with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government afterwards.

Their retirement brings the BJP strength down to 86 and that of the party-led National Democratic Alliance to 101, which is below the current majority mark of 113 in the 245-member House. The NDA does, however, have the support of the seven remaining nominated MPs and an Independent. The current strength of the Rajya Sabha is 225.

The Congress-led INDIA bloc has 87, of which the Congress has 26, Bengal’s ruling Trinamool 13, and the Aam Aadmi Party and the DMK, in power in Delhi and Tamil Nadu, have 10 each.

The NDA government is now reliant on non-NDA parties - such as ex-ally AIADMK of Tamil Nadu and former AP Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress Party (11), former Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao’s BRS (4) - and others, like nominated MPs to pass bills in the Upper House. This will be the case till the BJP can fill the four nominated seats and an election for 11 vacant seats, due this year, is completed. The BJP is expected to win at least eight of these seats.

As of now, the BJP needs NDA parties’ 15 votes and 12 more to pass bills. Seven of those 12 could come from the remaining nominated MPs. An eight could come from an Independent member, leaving the ruling party just four short of the magic mark of 113.

To hit that mark the YSRCP (11) is the BJP’s two most obvious option. The YSRCP has lent issue-based support to the BJP in the past, so those 11 votes seem assured for the BJP. Former Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik’s BJD (9) lent similar support too but, since it was beaten by the BJP in the May-June state election, has said it will not do so now.

As far as the nominated members are concerned, there can be a maximum of 12. Although non-aligned when brought in, since they are chosen by the government, they tend to support the ruling party. There are a total of 20 seats vacant at this time, including 11 held by elected members for which polls are expected this year. Of these, there are two seats each in Maharashtra, Assam, and Bihar, and one each in Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Tripura.

The BJP-led alliance has the numbers to win seven - from Assam, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Tripura. And if it can keep its flock together in Maharashtra, it will win two more from there. This could give the BJP as many as nine extra seats. If it wins those, and with the nominated members’ votes, as well as the YSRCP’s, it will have more than enough to cross the majority mark.

There are also four seats vacant from Jammu and Kashmir, which is expected to hold an Assembly election by September 30, in line with a Supreme Court order. The Telangana seat is likely to be won by the Congress, which swept to power last year. This is crucial because it will give the party enough votes to claim the Leader of the Opposition post in the Rajya Sabha. The Congress will then hold LoP seats in both Houses.