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Did Cong sink MVA in Maharashtra? Data crunching throws up interesting details
MahaYuti’s stupendous success and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)’s historic debacle in Maharashtra elections has sparked widespread debate about Congress’ ‘surrender and submission’ before the mighty Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and also whether it is becoming a ‘liability’ for its smaller and regional allies in states
Mumbai: MahaYuti’s stupendous success and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)’s historic debacle in Maharashtra elections has sparked widespread debate about Congress’ ‘surrender and submission’ before the mighty Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and also whether it is becoming a ‘liability’ for its smaller and regional allies in states. Many voices from within the Opposition have added weight to this theory.
Meanwhile, a set of data from election results does show that the INDIA bloc suffered a humiliating defeat in Maharashtra more because of Congress than its smaller allies -- Uddhav Thackeray-led SS(UBT) and Sharad Pawar-led NCP.
Firstly, the high-stakes poll battle, anticipated as Mahayuti vs. MVA emerged as a battle between two national parties, i.e., BJP and Congress. The two parties took on each other head-on, in at least 75 constituencies, however, the BJP gave the grand old party a bloody nose, romping home to victory in 65 out of the 75 direct face-offs.
What looked more worrisome for the grand old party was that out of these 75 direct BJP-Congress contest seats, the latter didn’t even come in second place in at least six constituencies.
Secondly, Congress' allies in the MVA, SS(UBT) trailed its counterpart SS (on 31 direct face-off seats) with a vote share margin of roughly 2 per cent while NCP(SP) managed the lead over its break-away faction (led by Ajit Pawar) but it was the grand old party which failed to stand up to BJP’s challenge, registering its biggest rout.
As per the Election Commission of India (ECI) records, Congress trailed BJP’s vote share by a staggering 14 per cent.
Thirdly, BJP managed a whopping strike rate of about 89 per cent, winning 132 out of 149 seats that it contested in the 288-member Assembly while for Congress, it stood even 25 per cent. The strike rate of BJP’s allies including SS and NCP(SP) hovered around 70 per cent. This assumes importance in the backdrop of recently held Lok Sabha polls, where BJP managed a lacklustre performance with barely 30-40 per cent vote share.
Fourthly, comparing the 2019 and 2024 Assembly elections, one finds that both Shiv Sena as well as NCP bettered their tally, this time. In 2019, the ‘undivided’ Sena bagged 56 seats while the factions claimed victory in 77 seats (SS-57 and SS(UBT) - 20) and NCP got 54 in 2019, which rose to 51 (NCP(SP) and NCP put together) in 2024.
It is the Congress party which floundered and plummeted from 44 in 2019 to 16 seats in 2024 polls.
Lastly, the BJP’s scintillating triumph in the Assembly elections came on the back of a powerful and well-oiled campaign in the aftermath of the 2024 LS setback. The campaign, steered by state and Central leaders not only enthused and energised its cadre but also galvanised party workers to strive for a better show.
BJP emerged victorious in 132 out of 288 seats, its highest-ever tally in Maharashtra and surpassed its past numbers of 122 in 2014 and 105 in the 2019 Assembly polls. On the other hand, Congress slumped to its worst-ever performance in the state, winning only 14 seats. This marked a steep decline from 44 in 2019 and 42 seats in the 2014 Assembly elections.
