Heavy July rains offset June deficit

New Delhi: Heavy July rainfall across India has not only offset the June precipitation deficit but has also shifted the overall monsoon scenario into surplus, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The IMD forecasts additional spells of heavy to very heavy rain over the next few days in northwest India, western parts of the peninsula, and the northeast region over the next five days.

India, a leading global producer of essential crops like rice, wheat, and sugarcane, faced an 11 percent rainfall deficit in June, particularly severe in northwest India with a 33 percent shortfall. However, heavy rains in early July have compensated for these shortages while causing flooding in parts of the northeast. Since the monsoon season commenced on June 1, the country has received 214.9 mm of rainfall, slightly surpassing the normal 213.3 mm as per IMD records. Northwest India and the southern peninsula have seen 3 percent and 13 percent above-average rainfall, respectively.

In eastern and northeastern regions, heavy rainfall has significantly reduced deficits, bringing them to zero in early July from 13 percent at the end of June.

Central India has also seen its deficit decrease from 14 percent to 6 percent during this period.

IMD data highlights that 23 percent of India’s sub-divisional area has experienced excess to large excess rainfall, while 67 percent received normal rainfall, and only 10 percent experienced deficient rainfall.

The monsoon’s progress was initially sluggish after an early onset in Kerala and the northeast on May 30, affecting regions like West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh and intensifying a northwest India heatwave.

After stalling from June 10 to June 18, monsoonal winds gradually progressed until June 26-27, covering a significant portion of northwest India.

Looking ahead, the IMD forecasts continued heavy rainfall in northeast India over the next five days, exacerbating ongoing flood challenges in the region. Assam remains severely affected, with over 2.45 million people impacted and 52 lives lost in the latest flooding. Manipur, Mizoram, and Arunachal Pradesh have also experienced river warnings and landslides due to recent heavy rains.

Earlier predictions from IMD and international experts suggest above-normal rainfall in July, potentially leading to further flooding in hilly states and river basins across central India.