IMD predicts above normal rainfall

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday announced that the country is likely to receive above-average monsoon rains this year, sticking to its April forecast. “Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%,” the IMD said.

The core monsoon zone, which encompasses the majority of rain-fed agricultural regions in the country, will experience above-average rainfall, it said. The states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal form the country's core monsoon zone where agriculture is primarily rain-fed.

The IMD said below-normal monsoon rainfall is expected in northeast India, normal in northwest, and above-normal in central and south peninsular regions of the country.

"Barring a few parts of southern peninsular India, normal to above-normal maximum temperatures are expected in the country in June," the IMD said, adding that conditions are favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala in the next five days.

The prediction comes as a huge relief as the crippling heat is testing power grids and triggering drought-like conditions in parts of the country.

It must also be noted that normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country. Climate change is increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.