Peak in India in mid-Nov: Study

New Delhi: The peak stage of COVID-19 pandemic in India has been delayed by the eight-week lockdown along with strengthened public health measures and it may now arrive around mid-November during which there could be a paucity of isolation and ICU beds, and ventilators, according to a study.

The study conducted by researchers from an Operations Research Group constituted by Indian Council of Medical Research said the lockdown shifted the peak of the pandemic by an estimated 34 to 76 days and helped bring down the number of infections by 69 to 97 per cent thereby allowing time for the healthcare system to shore up resources and infrastructure.

In the scenario of intensified public health measures with 60 per cent effectiveness after lockdown, the demand can be met until the first week of November.

After that, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the health researchers showed. However, this shortfall is estimated to be 83 per cent less than what it could have been without the lockdown and public health measures.

With sustained government steps at increasing the infrastructure and different pace of epidemic in different regions, the impact of unmet need can be reduced. If the coverage of public health measures can be increased to 80 per cent, the epidemic can be mitigated, the researchers stated.