US Elections 2024: Opportunities and Challenges for India

With US elections 2024 scheduled for November 5th, all eyes are on how it will influence India-US ties. Even though the election results are expected to have minimal impact on US and India relations; however, there are some sectors that could undergo a change, depending upon who wins the election.

A report from Nomura, a global research firm, indicates that if Donald Trump wins the US Presidential race, India would be at an advantage, largely benefitting from Trump's policies. In 2019, former President Donald Trump welcomed Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the "Howdy, Modi!" in Texas. The event was described as one of the biggest receptions ever held for a foreign leader in the US. Soon after in 2020, Modi hosted Trump in his home state Gujarat, reciprocating the hospitality extended by the US President.

Later in 2020, Donald Trump lost the US presidential race to Joe Biden. After four years, Trump is again participating in the US Presidential Election 2024 as the Republican candidate, contending against Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee.

India-US relations: 70 years of diplomatic partnership

In 2017, when Trump hosted PM Modi at the White House, the two released a joint statement, which said, "In marking 70 years of diplomatic relations between India and the United States, the leaders resolved to expand and deepen the strategic partnership between the countries and advance common objectives. Above all, these objectives include combating terrorist threats, promoting stability across the Indo-Pacific region, increasing free and fair trade, and strengthening energy linkages."

Many experts believe that Trump's Presidential win could be beneficial for India. Irrespective of Harris's Indian roots, Trump's standpoint against China and support for Russia could fall in the favour of India's interests.

On the other hand, India also might become a victim of challenges concerning trade and tariffs under Trump's presidency.

Trump's Presidential win: Impact on India

Strategic collaboration: Strategic partnership between the two countries is anticipated to strengthen if Trump wins the US Presidential race. He might continue to hold India-US collaboration, specifically across areas, including defence and counter-terrorism, given the India-US common interest against China.

Economic influence: Trump's win will incite modifications across US economic policies. These changes will certainly cast an influence on the economy of India, spanning manufacturing and technology domains.

Trade and tariffs: Trump has been a staunch supporter of the 'America First' policy. His approach to prioritising American interests could impact the trade and tariff settlement between US and India. However, experts believe that efforts would be targeted to advancing India-US ties.

Immigration: Trump's policy on immigration could be non-beneficial for Indian workers, similar to how it was during his first term as president. Especially regarding the H-1B visa policies, his immigration stance could turn out to be unfavourable for India.

Regional harmony: If Trump adopts a hardline stance towards South Asia, his presidential win could hamper India's relations with China and Pakistan. This could ultimately end up creating new concerns for India.

A win-win for India?

During Trump's first term as US president, India and US ties deepened across several aspects. The two countries strengthened their defence relations through various agreements, demonstrating a shared interest towards combating terrorism.

The re-forming of Quad, including, US, India, Japan, and Australia, resulted in becoming a key event in fortifying regional security and rebutting against China's rising influence in the region.

Further, Modi's visit to the US in 2019 and Trump's visit to India in 2020 enhanced the bilateral relations between the two countries.

Trump's 2024 presidential win could be favourable for India across several aspects. As per the Nomura report, "India and the US share deep economic and strategic interests that are unlikely to be compromised, irrespective of the election outcome."

The Trump vs Harris race will come to an end on November 5th and the result will determine what is in it for India.