Hope, fear the undercurrent in Telangana verdict

Voting is a supremely irrational act. However, political scientists and lay individuals alike say that it is due to the feeling of people about civic duty in a democratic set up to vote in elections and it’s not about trying to affect the electoral outcome. This is probably true in many countries. Many of us think that one person vote does not make any difference in the collective outcome as it takes a large majority of the people to uphold democracy. There is a perception that if democracy were to be upheld, it will be upheld without individual voting; if it were to collapse, it will collapse even if one voted. But this time voters in Telangana decided to cast their vote and that too for a political party due to an undercurrent or hawa developed with a fear and hope that would benefit them and decide their fate.

At the time of nominations stage, I travelled in northern Telangana particularly in Warangal and Karimnager districts. People were happy that their long cherished dream of Telangana became a reality. People on the street are overwhelmingly happy about getting their own state, at last. They are convinced they will have more jobs, better income, steady power and irrigation water supply in their own state, a faith, drive more by emotion than reason. At roadside eateries and under the shade of trees in villages youth and elders were discussing potential candidates and their fortunes in the elections. The atmosphere was not fully charged and there was no election eve euphoria as yet. However, I noticed lack of enthusiasm and the dilemmas among people in the region on whom they should vote.

Across the rural landscape, the campaign has just started; every party was projecting to be responsible in getting Telangana state and claiming their right to come in to power. Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and Telugu Desam-Bharatiya Janata Party combine are the main contenders for power. There were other players like YSR Congress, Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Aam Aadmi Party, Lok Satta Party, CPI and CPM in the fray but they have little stake in the elections. The electoral battle between the main contenders was so intense that picking a "favourite" was no easy task for people of Telangana. Most of the people were under the impression that it would be a fractured verdict with an edge to Congress because it is Sonia Gandhi who pushed the Telangana bill in Parliament.

Again just before week of elections, I travelled in same Warangal and Karimnager districts and people started spilling out onto the roads to meet people at large and heated discussions were going on victory of parties and candidates. Yet, people appeared to be unable to decide which of the three is the best bet-TRS, Congress or TDP-BJP alliance. People appear to be lost when asked which party they prefer. There was an impression that contest will be between the TRS and the Congress with very little place for the TDP-BJP combine. However, Modi wave and BJP-TDP alliance appeared to detrimental for Congress and TRS.

The first elections for the new state are most critical and hence the people of Telangana need to be extra-cautious in selecting their representatives for assembly and Lok Sabha as well. The new state’s problems are numerous. The expectations of the people are very high on the new government. The new state is starting its life with huge deficiency in power production capacity. There are lots more natural resources like water, coal etc. The people are looking for water for irrigation and drinking, industries for livelihood and necessary earnings. More educational institutions are required for providing the minimum basic education for the children of this soil. More than anyone else, the elections are highly critical for the TRS as it will be a "now-or-never" chance for it to realize its ultimate target of achieving power in the new state.

As polling date came closer, Telangana people realized that new state has to deal with those incongruous restrictions and peculiar status of the ne state in formation. They realized that national parties dominated by Seemandhra leaders and TDP who are the reason for these restrictions will ot be in a hurry to resolve these anamolies. Even Telangana units of these parties will not have political freedom to act on various issues like water. People feared that there is a scope for futher complicating and extending some of these restrictions creatinmg another chronic conflct, if these restrictions are not addressed at the earliest. Hence, people realized TRS with a single agenda is better placed and committed with political independence to fight and make the state full fledged and self governing like any other state in the country.

Is there a wave or undercurrent of TRS in Telangana and especially just two to three days before polling day? The demand for a separate state is the culmination of decades of negligence and exploitation; it is not an overnight revolution. Nor is it an overnight demand fuelled by politicians. The demand which is already in the hearts of Telangana people is being utilized by the power hungry politicians from time to time. However, the people of Telangana seemingly believe the fact that KCR’s revival of movement is the main reason for the formation of separate Telangana. Apparently, they would like to show gratitude for leading the movement and are more likely that they will support TRS party in forming the Government.

The main fear of Telangana people about Congress or TDP-BJP combine was inimical attitude of leadership and influence of Seemandhra leaders on them. It appeared that Telangana people realized that regional parties are making difference in favour of the local people in states like Tamilnadu, Orissa, Bihar etc. Telengana also needs such a political dispensation to cope up with teething problems in the new state and make up its loss suffered in the united state. A strong opinion started emerging in people on to keep its own political identity and governance.

What worried people was the curious neutral stand of TJAC which always supported TRS. This prompted to remove any ambiguity that could lead to confusion among people and cause diversion of Telangana votes to other parties leading to a fractured verdict. They have done this because if TRS is not elected to form government it will lead to further complications with regard to Hyderabad city and other important issues like poer, irrigation, division of employees etc affecting interests of Telangana. Though T-Congress, T-TDP and T-BJP leaders’ exhibited Telangana spirit and participated in the movement in varying degrees, people doubted on their integrity on the issue that they may succumb to their respective high commands. In spite of reservations about TRS, people did not find any alternative to it. Average voter felt that need of the hour is a regional party that is fully identified with the ethos of Telangana with ability to fight with centre and the political forces inimical to it in the new state.

There is a difference between thinking of intellectuals and people. An intellectual thinking is biased on fixed opinions and case studies. People think with experience and based on their immediate needs and objectives and rallied behind TRS with a hope that it would fulfil their aspirations. In no time the hawa or undercurrent had been created and spread like fire. Incredible, the hawa that emerged two to three days before polling was not even identified by media because it was so difficult to catch with undercurrent. Telangana people may have voted in majority to Congress in Municipal elections and may have treated TDP with soft corner in Panchayat elections because of local issues but after the smell of hawa he knew what he wants. After all this is the land where people movement was so active in 1940s and about to form first communist government which attracted international attention.

This hawa in favour of TRS seems to have created an edge over the Congress to bring TRS in to power with a simple majority. In the worst scenario a one to two percent margin may jeopardise TRS chances in 5 to 10 seats. Even in that unlikely event, if that has to happen, TRS would certainly look to TDP-BJP combine for support rather than MIM or Congress. After all, knowing shrewdness of KCR, he prefers to align with a party in centre and not with a party that people rejected.