OMC and FCNR swaps over; Test ahead for Forex Market

OMC and FCNR swaps over; Test ahead for Forex Market
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OMC and FCNR swaps over; Test ahead for Forex Market,

With official declaration finally arriving from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) are purchasing dollars directly from the Forex Market, the coming days have interesting developments in store. In addition, FCNR and Bank swaps have also seen a termination on November 30, 2013. Now, when the OMCs are accessing dollars directly from the market since the last week and not from the RBI anymore, forex analysts are keeping their fingers crossed hoping that it doesn’t lead to sudden volatility in the market as earlier.

In August 2013, in the wake of sudden depreciation in the rupee value by over 10 per cent to 68 per dollar, the RBI had arranged for a mechanism where the OMCs could source their dollar requirements, directly from it in the form of a swap, so as to reduce pressure on the already struggling forex market. The oil refiners were mandated to return the accessed dollars back to the RBI at a later date, when market conditions stabilize.

Oil refiners require around $8 billion on an average each month to meet their needs and up till now (since the swaps began) the demand remained completely out of the market, helping rupee to find corrections in its valuation and return to 62 levels.
However, it’s yet to be seen how our markets react to the development in the days ahead. The partially convertible currency ended the day (December 5) at 61.77 a dollar. The rupee had earlier climbed to a new high of 61.54 a dollar in the intra-day trading, in anticipation of the BJP victory in Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh barring Mizoram in the recently concluded Assembly elections. However, owing to dollar demand from oil companies, the rally was arrested a little.
This shows the market is still not comfortable with OMCs entering the scenario. But, only through the official data, which would be released in Jan-Feb 2013, the results can be analyzed better. Additionally, with ending of FCNR and bank swaps where banks were allowed to swap dollars against the foreign currency deposits of the NRIs (earning a 3 year swap at 3.5 per cent) or bring in debt (in dollar form) for markets minus 1 per cent, the conditions can get tougher. FCNR and bank swaps had brought in around $34 billion, which had mostly catered to the demand (of about $24 billion) from oil market companies in the period.
However, since swaps are done away with now, we expect continuous inflow of the dollars from abroad to furnish the needs of OMCs, so that forex market doesn’t feel the pinch. And, with favorable Current Account Deficit (CAD) numbers for the last quarter out, only better should be expected!
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of our organisation.
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