US downgrade of India's air safety ranking worrisome

Three key policymakers and stakeholders in India's civil aviation space, in one voice, showed collective denial last week over the downgrade of the country's air safety ranking by the United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

Smiling often, even as he called the downgrade "very disappointing and also surprising," India's Civil Aviation Minister Ajit Singh vowed that India can bounce back by March from the ignominy of crash-landing in the company of the world's bottom 13 in air safety: Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Paraguay, Barbados, the Philippines, Ghana, Nicaragua, Indonesia, Swaziland, Curacao, Serbia, Saint Martin and Uruguay.

How the minister can do this remains fuzzy, as he will be caught between election season and related distractions, particularly with a celebrated policeman from Mumbai expected to stand against him in his political pocket borough of Baghpat in western Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state.

Then, Prabhat Kumar, appointed by Ajit Singh as director-general of civil aviation (DGCA), the sector's watchdog, earlier this month only to stave off the downgrade, sat passively to the minister's left in a press conference Friday, demurring with his political boss's claim. It is also anybody's guess how Kumar, appointed helter-skelter a few days back can attract several dozen safety inspectors and examiners that India has been found short of.

Recruitment rules are so complicated that some hirings have languished since 1998. Shortages are more acute if one factors in the significant additions made in the fleet of Indian carriers. More importantly, payments to these inspectors are meagre by industry standards, and tenures short.

This leaves many technical honchos disinterested in a stint with the DGCA unless they are jobless anyway!

Jitendra Bhargava, author of 'Descent of Air-India,' sees inherent conflict of interest too: Inspectors and examiners rejoin the industry, often the same airline that they may have judged during their tenure with the DGCA. The regulator has failed to bar such cozy arrangements.

The third stakeholder, Rohit Nandan, chairman of state-owned Air-India and Kumar's cadre-mate from the Indian Administrative Service, seemed unshaken that he can't add any more flights to the US until India climbs out of the rogue list.

Nandan, a historian by training, attempted to limit the national humiliation by deflecting the point. "The downgrade won't puncture my airline's bid to re-enter Star Alliance," he said. The club had ejected the Maharaja in 2011 and a re-entry would help - but the vital point is Star Alliance isn't the point here! Given the mess that he is in, Nandan anyway doesn't have spare aircraft in the hangar to utilize more traffic rights to the US.

With key officials happy to tow the minister's bluster, the sole private player on the Indian side, Jet Airways, won't also be able to get additional flights there until the watchdog climbs back. The downgrade also shuts the door for now on other private carriers from India.

Also, Jet and Air-India aircraft can be subjected to prolonged double-checks at US airports, a sure recipe that their passengers will abandon them and give their business to rival carriers from other countries.

Bhargava blames Ajit Singh, who had held the civil aviation portfolio since December 2011. "Someone has to be named for this mess. And that one man is Ajit Singh."

Analyst Kapil Kaul of Centre for Aviation (CAPA), a leading industry analyst, stops short of naming the minister, but emphasizes repeated warnings that his reports, and the US authority, held out before the ministry and the media. "It is national humiliation," he says bluntly, unsure if Ajit Singh can restore the ratings in the next few weeks.

The main issue isn't even a downgrade by the FAA, citing standards of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), but the fact that a responsible country like India was expected to have looked in the mirror for the sake of passenger safety per se.

The cascading impact of the downgrade is the real worry now. The Europeans have been comforting, but their consumer rights groups and the media won't let them sit still if worries about Indian air worthiness persist for long.

Ditto for the Japanese. They had sought to review the Indian aviation space last September, only to be rebuffed at that time. A new request, after the US downgrade, can't be dismissed like the last one.