RBI sees 7.3% growth in FY18

RBI sees 7.3% growth in FY18
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Highlights

Economic activity as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to expand by 7.3 per cent in the current fiscal, up from 6.6 per cent in 2016-17, the Reserve Bank said noting the risks are evenly balanced.

Headline inflation expected to be 2-3.5% in the H1 of this fisca

Mumbai: Economic activity as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to expand by 7.3 per cent in the current fiscal, up from 6.6 per cent in 2016-17, the Reserve Bank said noting the risks are evenly balanced.

The prospects for the manufacturing sector remain uncertain in the short term in view of the implementation of GST - RBI

The headline inflation, it said, is expected to be in the range of 2-3.5 per cent in the first half of 2017-18 and 3.5-4.5 per cent in the later part. Global growth is gaining traction in 2017-18 with the recovery, driven primarily by a cyclical upturn in investment, manufacturing and trade, the RBI said in annual report for 2016-17. Favourable domestic conditions are mainly expected to enable a quicker pace of overall economic activity during the year, it said.

While growth is again expected to be consumption-led, continuing remonetisation should enable a pick-up in discretionary consumer spending, especially in cash-intensive segments of the economy, the central bank said. The report said that expected normal monsoon and the resultant replenishment of reservoirs, policy initiatives of the government such as hike in MSPs and increasing crop insurance coverage are likely to help in boosting crop production and supporting rural demand.

"On the whole, real GVA (Gross Value Added) growth is projected to rise from 6.6 per cent in 2016-17 to 7.3 per cent in 2017-18, with risks evenly balanced," the RBI said. It also noted that early indicators for 2017-18 based on IIP and the performance of eight core industries point to subdued industrial activity. "The prospects for the manufacturing sector remain uncertain in the short term in view of the implementation of GST," it said, adding the services sector is, however, expected to perform better during the year.

The central bank further said that in the fiscal sphere, while the gains to growth, efficiency and tax buoyancy over the medium term from GST are unequivocally recognised, near- term uncertainties with regard to revenue mobilisation therefrom –- which could impact fiscal consolidation at both centre and state levels -– cannot be ruled out as this fundamental reform gains pan-India traction.

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