Centre may control prices to soften inflationary shocks: S&P
With petrol and diesel prices scaling record highs, SP Global Ratings Monday said the government may opt to control retail fuel prices to cushion inflationary shocks
New Delhi: With petrol and diesel prices scaling record highs, S&P Global Ratings Monday said the government may opt to control retail fuel prices to cushion inflationary shocks.
India imports almost 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements. Rising crude prices and the recent 10 per cent slide in the rupee has translated into higher fuel prices for consumers. "This puts pressure on consumers and results in higher inflation, a sensitive subject, given the impending federal and state elections over the next 12 months," S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Vishal Kulkarni said.
"We don't expect any reversion to the subsidy mechanism similar to before 2014 in India, even though the incumbent government may opt to control retail fuel prices, using other means, to cushion the inflationary shocks," Kulkarni added.
The US-based agency said it assumes a Brent crude oil price per barrel of $70 for the rest of 2018, $65 for 2019, and $60 for 2020, against the current spot price of almost $80 per barrel in our financial projections.
Petrol price Monday crossed the Rs 90-mark in Mumbai, while it was at Rs 82.72 per litre in Delhi. Diesel at IOC's outlets in Mumbai costs Rs 78.58 a litre, while in Delhi the fuel costs Rs 74.02 a litre.
The government freed petrol price from its control in June 2010 and diesel in October 2014. It now provides a limited subsidy on LPG and kerosene. S&P said amid rising crude oil prices, tight implementation of retail fuel-pricing policies will influence the leverage of Indian oil companies.
"While rising oil prices bolster the cash flows of upstream businesses, cross subsidies from upstream to downstream segments could limit such benefits," Kulkarni said. If downstream companies can't fully pass-through higher crude oil prices to consumers, profitability could weaken.