Plot within Plot

It is a common knowledge that the scenario being played out in Tamil Nadu post-Jayalalithaa for more than two months could turn to be a seat-edge thriller. The options before the unenviable Governor, Ch Vidyasagar Rao, are limited.

Or so it is being said. He could either invite Panneerselvam to continue in the chair or turn to Sasikala because she right now has more than 130 MLAs, seemingly, on her side. Or else, the Governor could ask her to await the Apex Court judgement.

The Supreme Court is all set to deliver its judgment in the Rs 66.65 crore disproportionate assets cases involving her, in which they were acquitted only to be challenged later. Her fate hinges on this one more than any.

The fourth option before the Governor is to recommend President's Rule in the State for the time being. Any one or all of these could come in for question, constitutionally, politically and morally, if he does not tread carefully.

By all means, this is a deja vu moment in Tamil Nadu politics as history is being replicated studiously by political contenders. It is more like a movie remake – only with newer faces. But then there should be a director, too.

This director, the Centre, has made an alteration to the script by incorporating a sub-plot concurrently being played up all the while and all along. This one has not missed one opportunity nor has it either underestimated the strengths and weaknesses of the twists and turns that the actors are capable of throwing up.

Panneerselvam is on a weak ground and needs time to add numbers to his pack as well as build an anti-Sasikala mood among the party men by fuelling doubts over Jaya's demise. Sasikala, on the other hand, is suspected to be unhappy with the Centre over the raids conducted on people close to her coterie and hence is not welcome as she could not be trusted at all, the sub-plot prominently says. Rather, it is around this theme that the churn was engineered through 'silence and non-interference.'

The political drama unfolding in Tamil Nadu today cannot be understood in isolation and without understanding Bharatiya Janata Party's strategy. It could not be accused of muddying the political waters of Tamil Nadu without being prepared for consequences.

Rather, it is a cool calculation on its part that allowed it to await the developments surrounding leadership. Its leadership deliberately encouraged both the warring factions in the first half. Coming to the events leading to the climax, the Centre is wary of the potential of Sasikala to create trouble for it in the future.

In contrast, OPS could be an easy bargain, malleable at the whims of the BJP leadership. Ahead is an all-important Presidential election in which the ruling party needs the support of as many parties as possible.

The BJP leadership just had some plans for Tamil Nadu working with the marginalised sections and seeking a filmy face if possible to establish itself in the State.

Jaya's sudden passing away gave it that much more room to experiment to its advantage and is just waiting to play it safe by bargaining a little more time.