Janasena, Jai Samaikyandhra effect in General Elections

Come elections and the political atmosphere in India and states across the nation turn volatile. In the fluid situation political leaders and cadre analyse the changes of their respective parties and individual prospects personally and try to put their stakes on winning horses.

At the same time, celebrities from corporate and cine field decide to try their luck in politics after being lured by power and respect that comes with holding plum posts. While some join existing parties, others start their own parties. This makes election battle even more interesting adding extra glamour to the contest.

Apart from it, analysts and right thinking people wonder whether emergence of new parties is good or a bad phenomenon for the country. This question always arises as people are fed up with the opportunistic politics displayed by various Independents and small parties in the coalition era. The politics of power played by the so called Third Front, during each elections without any agenda but single minded thirst for power, made it a laughing stock in front of people. The horse trading popularised by Independents has made people detest independents or new parties.

Many however say in democracy anyone can contest as an Independent or launch a new party. While some say just like in US, UK and other countries two parties are good for the country. They say people have clear cut option rather than confusion created with the presence of so many parties. But some say new alternatives are good for people as they will be presented with another option if dissatisfied with the two parties.

Emergence of regional parties as strong force have weakened Union Governments. In Uttar Pradesh, Congress and BJP would dominate but SP, BSP and other parties changed the country's scenario. In some states only two viable alternatives would exist. Like in West Bengal only TMC and Left, Tamil Nadu DMK, AIADMK, in Andhra Pradesh Congress and TDP etc. However situation changed right from Maharashtra where NCP, Shiv Sena, MNS are emerging as alternatives, DMDK, PMK and others in Tamil Nadu, YSRCP, TRS, Lok Satta in AP and many more are on the anvil.

In Andhra Pradesh, with the division of state into Telangana and Seemandhra new parties are coming. They include former Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy's Jai Samaikyandhra and hero Power Star Pawan Kalyan's Janasena. Now the question is what effect these two parties will have in Andhra Pradesh and in the formation of Government at the Centre. There is no denying the fact the Sonia Gandhi, the AICC president decided to divide Andhra Pradesh, only to increase seats and form next government at the Centre.

Many feel Kiran's Jai Samaikyandhra and Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena will have only marginal effect. However even that could be decisive in the final outcome. Already political situation in Andhra Pradesh due to state division is fluid.

Even though TRS is expecting to sweep elecions in Telangana, anything can happen with or without its alliance with Congress. TDP is still a strong force with good organisation and party structure and Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSRCP is trying to strengthen the party in the wake of changed situation. BJP is trying to make an impact in Telangana and not left behind is Congress.

In seemandhra it is turning unpredictable. Earlier YSRCP was expected to sweep polls. But TDP is emerging stronger and with the launch of Kiran Kumar Reddy's Jai Samaikyandhra party, equations are fast changing. While Congress is expected to face virtual rout, analysts are trying to findout which votes Kiran's Jai Samaikyandhra party eat into.

Even as this is going on Pawan Kalyan all set to enter into both Telangana and Seemandhra with his Janasena may prove to be a game changer. Though it is new party,Pawan has tremendous fan following which can turn into votes. If all parties win equal seats in seemandhra and telangana then,coalition era starts in Andhra Pradesh and this inturn will have huge impact on national politics.

It is known that Andhra Pradesh played key role in Government formation at Centre in last two years. But with 25 MP seats and 17 MP seats in Seemandhra and Telangana, it is anyone's call and a party which wins two loksabha seats will play key role. Many feel with an eye on this, Kiran and Pawan are entering the battle ground.

One cannot forget the lasting impact Chiranjeevi made with his PRP. Winning 18 seats it emerged as a strong force and affected TDP's chances in the elections enabling Congress form the Government. Loksatta too made its presence felt in Hyderabad. Some say emergence of small parties is a ploy by Congress to keep BJP out of power. Many feel it is Congress' cunning way to stop ramapaging Narendra Modi, whose popularity is increasing day by day and surveys pointing out with BJP just stopping short of simple majority.

The best example is Delhi where BJP was expected to come to power easily until AAP entered fray. It cut into BJP vote share and finally hung assembly resulted. Many suspect Arvind Kejriwal, a off spring of Congress as he joined hands to form Government with Congress for short time. Only time will tell what impact Pawan Kalyan's Janasena and Kiran Kumar Reddy's Jai Samaikyandhra make in Andhra Pradesh an in the government formation at Centre.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of our organisation.