No rosy picture in sight

The recent report of the annual of Global Carbon Budget, compiled by scientists from around the world, found that in 2015 the emissions of planet warming carbon dioxide stayed level at 36.3 billion tones (GtCO2) and was projected to rise only slightly by 0.2 per cent in 2016.

However, this was better compared to the annual growth of 2.3 per cent rate of emissions from 2004 to 2013.

Though some scientists found this a healthy trend, with growth remaining strong in spite of controlled emissions, it has to be admitted that unless such emissions reduce, global warming will not come down.

Scientists are of the opinion that flat-line trends in global emission are encouraging but the report admitted that to achieve the global resolve to limit global warming to 20 C (3.60F) over pre-industrial levels, emissions must do more than level off.

In fact, a decrease of 0.9 per cent per annum was needed to achieve this limit by 2030. The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has continued to grow, the report warned, hitting a record level of 323GtCO2 last year (2015) that looked to reach 25 GtCO2 in 2016.

It may also be mentioned here that the planet has already used more than two-thirds of the emissions quota to keep climate change below two degrees target.

As regards India, emission reduction will hinge on how quickly the country can expand its renewable energy programme, which includes a plan to install 100,000 MW of solar energy by 2022. But researchers expect the growth in emissions to persist and India’s plans to double coal production by 2020.

The report does not present a rosy picture even after steps being taken by almost all countries, including US, China, the European Union, Japan, India, etc. to reduce emissions and greenhouse gases.

Meanwhile, a new study of the Grantham Research Institute of Climate Change and the London School of Economics released a recent report (on November 17) found that six G20 countries – Argentina, Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United States – have not undertaken sufficient domestic efforts to match their pledged nationally determined to the Paris agreement.

Added to this is the fact that there are reports that the President elect of the US, Donald Trump, may come out of the Paris agreement as the conditionalities may reduce jobs in his country, though this may not be quite easy.

Another report of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has found that 2016 is to be the hottest year documented.

Phalodi village in Rajasthan set a new record with a temperature of 510 C on May 19, the report stated, while other places the temperature went even higher – 540 C in Mitribah (Kuwait), on July 21 and 53.90 C in Basra (Iran) and 530C in Delhora (Iran) on July 22. Thailand and many parts of Africa also experienced heat waves.

Scientists agree that while the rise in temperatures owed primarily to the emissions of greenhouse gases, El Nino helped in pushing the mercury even higher.

Analyst said it was shocking that while the world faced a climate emergency, countries and humanitarian agencies had to cope with a funding gap of $ 3.1 billion as they strove to meet the needs of the worst-affected communities.

In fact, it is well-known that not much has been achieved in the realm of climate finance and the US may not come forward with the money in the coming years.

Considering all this, one is inclined to believe that the threat to the environment will aggravate in the coming years.

In such a situation, it is the impoverished and economically weaker sections in the Third World countries that would be hard hit – whether it is floods or droughts resulting in prices of foodgrains, inundation of their settlements or village roads or heat wave resulting in deaths.

It may be mentioned here that droughts have been a big problem in India and in many other countries, specially in Africa.

Meanwhile, water crisis has affected the western, some parts of northern India and the Prime Minister recently indicated a “permanent solution to drought”, which is very much necessary at this juncture.

But the crisis is expected to aggravate further as the World Bank indicated that an extreme wet monsoon has a chance of occurring only once in 100 years.

Apart from all this, various types of pollution and water-borne diseases are increasing where again the poor are mostly affected.

However, the most important effect of increasing greenhouse gases would be on agriculture and food production and this would have a disastrous effect on South Asian countries, including India.

Decreasing food availability along with water crisis – which is expected to manifest itself clearly in the next decade or even earlier with India becoming ‘water stressed’ – would lead to various types of health problems, included childhood stunting.

In this connection, one may refer here to a World Bank report, prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Impact Research and Climate Analytics, where it was clearly stated that India would see a significant reduction in crop yields because of extreme heat.

More than 60 per cent of the crop area is rain fed, making it highly vulnerable to climate-induced changes in precipitation patterns.

It is estimated that by 2050s – or even earlier – with a temperature increase of 2.50C compared to pre-industrial levels, water for agricultural production in the river basins would shrink further and may impact food adequacy for around 63 million people.

Meanwhile, the just concluded Marrakech summit has come out with an action proclamation (MAP) urging all countries for strengthening cooperation among nations to close the gap between current emission trajectory and the pathway needed to keep the average temperature rise within 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 from pre-industrial levels.

Apart from this, a clear roadmap was drawn out for measuring and accounting emission reduction in all countries.

It is heartening to hear that the rules will also have a mechanism to mobilize climate finance to help developing countries in taking adaptation measures.

At this point whatever may be said, action of respective governments lie on the intentions of their political leaders and the pressure they exert to curb emissions.

Regarding realisation of the $ 100 billion mobilization goal, which has been reiterated in MAP, the prospects of such money coming to the developing countries appears somewhat remote in spite of encouraging declarations.

The situation is thus quite grim judged from all angles. Though presently environment has received the maximum hype all over the world with innumerable research being conducted and conferences being held, the effect of all such actions has been not been quite encouraging.

As is generally agreed, the onus would obviously be on the developed world which with a mere 20 per cent of the world’s population accounts for over 50 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions.

The debate over environment and development will continue to bother respective governments, specially those who have high levels of industrialisation, but it goes without saying that urgent action is called for in keeping with their national pledges.

By: Dhurjati Mukherjee
INFA