The politics around demonetisation

This year the politics of the country is certainly going to revolve around demonetisation as a point of reference more than anything. From today onwards the political discourse will be centred around it.

The accusations, charges, counter charges, criticism, denials...every aspect of politics will be and shall be using demonetisation as an exemplar.

So, what could happen to the demonetised politics of the country and where would it all lead to? With every party benchmarking its performance against this criterion of demonetisation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will take the role of fulcrum in his own party to fight against the Opposition; united or divided.

The first in the list of surprises is Uttar Pradesh (UP) along with all five states that are going to elections - Punjab, Manipur, Goa and Uttarakhand whose term is set to expire in March and UP whose term is to be completed in May.

As for the BJP ask anyone at its headquarters - Punjab is a gone case. They are least interested in it despite the positive results of the civic elections in its capital the other day.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will go into 2017 watchful but unbowed, a foreign media report says and truly so.
This 2017, a busy year of State elections, whether the fractured opposition would be able to capitalise on the “short-term pain” for its long-term gain will be severely tested.

The world's biggest and the most sweeping currency policy change is sure to affect the campaign styles too. The fact that the opposition so far is unable to successfully mobilise public opinion against demonetisation is a proof that Modi has done his homework well.

Cash-starved BSP and Congress could find it a tough going as mobilising people for rallies will not be an easy affair for the politicians, be it Uttar Pradesh or Punjab.

In addition, the split in the ruling Samajwadi Party in UP may spell its doom, which the BJP is fully geared to leverage itself upon.

All that Modi needs to do is pump in money into the banks and the ATMs and the system as such, in these poll-bound States so that people do not feel the pinch. The BJP's gain is in shoring up the rural economy as small, medium and big industry has almost collapsed.

Farming is facing a huge crisis and all that the BJP needs to do is take care of this rural and semi-urban segment to turn the tide in its favour. The party is already geared up and is planning to take on the rivals with its talk of cleansing the system.

As for the politics of other players like Mamata, Lalu and Kejriwal, it will certainly test their vocal chords over the issue.

It is not a good thing to be not just clueless about Modi's plans (even the BJP is) but also money-less for spending on an election campaign.

Mamata has already pushed the likes of Kejriwal and Rahul Gandhi to a corner with her stridency and she will continue to do so to grab the space in the Opposition seems to be willingly vacating being unable to fathom the people's mind on this issue of demonetisation. Mamata may not see her pan-Indian campaign take off as long as people trust Modi.

The impact of demonetisation will be talked about endlessly by the parties as the country's economy is projected to grow 6.5 per cent October-December instead of the 7.8 per cent economists had predicted earlier. Small businesses, the biggest creators of jobs, are estimated to forfeit transactions worth $9 billion.

The outcome of the elections will decide the future of India forever. If the BJP triumphs, it is Modi's era in Indian politics and it will make him see his party through the next round too.

As for other States where there are no elections, the BJP will have an opportunity to talk more about the 'long term gains'.

Coming to South, the scenario is more placid. Tamil Nadu is a wait and watch situation for the BJP, where it is waiting for things to settle down.

It is also toying with the idea of bringing some acceptable face, a new one, to the fore as it senses its time has come. Dravidian politics could see a churn in this direction.

The two Telugu States may remain friendly to the BJP and if the TRS does not plan any alliance, it’s trouble ahead for it in Telangana.

Chandrababu Naidu may not be disturbed as the BJP does not want to open too many fronts. Karnataka is bound to give jitters to the Congress if the common man continues to repose his faith in Modi.

And if Modi hits the bull’s-eye, it is all going to be hunky-dory between him and the likes of Nitish and Naveen. Mamata and Congress might themselves in each other's company, in a corner.

As for the politics of Kashmir and North East, it will be 'as is where is condition'.