OBOR: Hard choices before India

The bottom line first: India’s relations with both Pakistan and China are in for a prolonged period of dip. Wordy war with China, but they will remain particularly volatile with Pakistan. One does not have to be a pundit of geopolitics to say this.

Some key issues bedeviling the three-way relations have got closely inter-twined. Pakistan has got a handle in the way India is dealing with the unrest in Kashmir and now China is traversing that disputed territory.

Pakistan is gung-ho about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the panacea to all its ills, that is a key component of China’s ambitious One Belt One Road (OBOR) or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

A peeved India, upstaged and outmaneuvered on this, kept away from the opening in Beijing that was attended by Presidents, Prime Ministers and top honchos from 29 countries, besides the United Nations Secretary General and chiefs of various multilateral agencies. Trying to isolate Pakistan within South Asia in the last three years, India now finds itself isolated in a wider world.

Opinion is sharply divided in India whether this should have been done, without leaving a window of opening. Is India working against the collective wisdom of 68 countries that have signed up? Of course, BRI is not just economics and infrastructure and India has territorial issues. But can it afford to be a straggler in a fast-moving world where geo-economics have become as much, if not more, important as geopolitics.

While these are new challenges/opportunities that India must deal with, a relatively new irritant has come in the form of the conviction of Indian national Kulbhushan Jadhav who Pakistan claims was caught on its territory and is accused of engaging in terrorism and spying. Convicted, he is on the death row and India needs to go all out to save him. This is Pakistan’s answer to India raising the Balochistan issue to counter the narrative on Kashmir.

India moving the International Court of Justice (ICJ) took Pakistan by surprise and unprepared and commendably, India won on each count it had sought reprieve for Jadhav.But this was only the first round and rather premature celebrations in India were met by Pakistan’s defiance and breast-beating. It is a long, uncertain haul for both.

Jadhav remains Pakistan’s biggest catch in years and it can snap any time, notwithstanding the court verdict. The court has not gone into – was not expected to – examine the merit of Jadhav’s innocence or otherwise. Hence, having convicted through a secret military trial, Pakistan would rather engage in diplomatic shenanigans.

After the turmoil the court verdict caused at home, it is seriously doubtful if Pakistan will still provide consular access ruled by the court. Round two of the court battle has already been declared, and this could take months, even years. Meanwhile, faced with any situation that may require it to re-try or repatriate Jadhav, the authorities could get him killed in jail, the way Sarabjeet, another Indian convicted of spying, was.

Besides the loss of face for his government on this count, the political fall-out has been serious for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, already under fire from the political opposition over ‘Panamagate’ that involves money dealings by his family members.

Pakistan’s opposition has totally politicised the court debacle and charged that it came about as part of a “secret deal” that Sharif allegedly reached with Indian industrialist Sajjan Jindal, a Sharif friend also said to be close to the Indian establishment.

Sharif has admitted to having engaged in back-channel diplomacy in secretly meeting Jindal some weeks back. Now the opposition has an Indian stick to beat Sharif with. So, not just the army, but Pakistan’s political class also does not want talks with India – that is, if India is ready.

There is the China angle to l’affaire Jadhav. Pakistan has questioned the ICJ jurisdiction and will definitely fight till the end. Since the court has no powers or machinery to enforce its verdicts, the matter can only reach the UN Security Council.

There, China can yet again use veto to prevent the UNSC from compelling Pakistan to abide by the court directives. For India, it will be a frustrating repeat of its path being blocked at the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and getting Pakistan-backed militant Masood Azahar declared a terrorist.

The Sino-Pak relationship that began in the wake of the Sino-Indian conflict of 1962 has blossomed on my-enemy’s-enemy-is-my-friend principle. The military cooperation and nuclear proliferation are passé; so is the talk of “string of pearls,” of India being surrounded on the sea by China. Now, the CPEC is China’s road to the Indian Ocean.

India’s efforts at collaborating with countries of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and Sagar Mala did not take off because it does not have China’s deep pockets. Its boosting the Asian Highway, meant to link Bulgaria with Bangkok, was scuttled when Pakistan and Bangladesh under Begum Khaleda Zia opposed alignments that they suspected would give India an advantage over them. The Asian Highway can still be revived, but it may be poor man’s alternative to China’s BRI.

China's ambitions are extraordinary and unprecedented. For India, it will not be easy to be a lone voice in the wilderness. Entire countries faced with the decision of their lives have fallen in line – go along for the ride or get left behind. The Chinese growth thanks to BRI would perhaps be the single largest creation of capital in mankind's history.

Investors now would no longer need to hide their plans for fear of being discovered. China's just played its hand for the world to see.

But the dangers are not difficult to foresee – if one wants to, that is. Those on the BRI run the risk of heavy debts, their economies dovetailed into the vortex of the goals of one giant economy and resultant political manipulations.

Western analysts are falling in line too. BRI makes the post-WWII Marshall Plan, intended to secure alliances in Europe, look puny. This time around we're talking about a concerted economic effort covering 65 per cent of the world's population, more than one-third of global GDP, and more than 25 per cent of all goods and services sold worldwide.

President Xi Jinping Xi has put the planet on notice that China intends to set the world's tone for globalisation as it sees fit. At the same time, he's very deliberately sending a message to Washington that China is going to fill the void created by generations of failed American foreign policy and, specifically, by Trump's ‘America First’ programmes. China is the new superpower.

Unfortunately, India is widely seen as being in the American camp, trying to ‘contain’ China. Boycotting BRI pushes it into tighter American embrace, limiting its autonomy to act strategically. But the US and Europeans have themselves hailed BRI as they want a piece of the cake that is on offer. They foresee that companies that ignore China will fail, or fall by the wayside. Those that engage China or Chinese interests will do well.

India’s option, not an easy one, should have been to join in and act cautiously. The stand that CPEC passes through the Jammu and Kashmir territory it disputes with Pakistan, which is the one that Pakistan ceded to China, does not hold water since that did not prevent its dealings with both Pakistan and China – particularly China. Is it any surprise that India hardly figures in any analyses being conducted on the BRI and its future?

China's plans will create an entirely new batch of millionaires within the next five years, including those among the Pakistani elite. That, of course, is not – and should not – be the argument for India being in it. India could – can still do – walk the path to ‘hell,’ saving itself from becoming China’s ‘colony.’ The road to hell, to tweak a known saying, can be walked with caution, if the intention is good.