A long-haul flight to south

The BJP leadership, expectedly, has begun shuffling its cards for maximum gains in 2019. The party is redefining its equations with its allies and opponents alike, carefully drafting its priorities. The party's line – have an ally, yet keep growing – is a bit difficult for its friends to digest. Ask Shiv Sena and it will open up its wounds to demonstrate how, allegedly, the BJP cons allies.

All the same, the BJP has also been flexible enough in accommodating the wishes of its allies too. Take the case of Punjab where it lost its Assembly script miserably. The party had its problem in the elections.

Several of its own leaders were against continuing the alliance with the SAD (Shiromani Akali Dal) and yet, it preferred to sail together only to sink. The BJP's top leadership averred that a friend of nearly three decades or so should not be dumped at the time of crisis. The party could have stepped in at the right time to avoid such a poor show by asking the SAD leadership to mend its ways while in power but it did not do so for some reason.

Some observers felt that the BJP's policy of giving a long rope to its allies could prove detrimental to its interests in the long run and concluded that Punjab was an exception. Perhaps, they were right. May be, this also could have prompted the BJP to be a bit more careful with its allies.

At least the goings-on in the party since then are indicative of this cautious approach. The BJP leadership now-a-days is preferring all fall-back options in securing power. "We are meaningfully adopting 'Sama-Dana- Bheda-Dando Payams’ and there is nothing wrong in it," a senior BJP functionary says, when asked about the criticism that his party is facing with regard to its manipulations.

This should send the warning bells ringing for the governments in the two Telugu States. The BJP's strategy for the two States has been well thought out and the party is in no hurry to impact the political tidings of the two States in a hurry.

BJP chief Amit Shah who began deliberating upon his Southbound plans carefully laid out the road plans for improving upon the present position, strengthening the base and finally capturing power in the States. These steps, though sounding innocuous, could mean several things for a party embarking on a conquest and result in 'Plan A, Plan B, Plan C etc' (options as it could be read).

While Plan A simply could mean coming to power either on its own or with the help of allies, Plan B need not necessarily be a simpler option like it. It could mean coming to power with the help of a section of the allies too. Those at the receiving end could call it an engineered split, but the rival could always bank on such 'dissidents.’

So, while dissidence is an issue that the BJP leadership would be interested to look at, it is also aware of the fact that this factor could be ingrained, nurtured and developed over a period effortlessly. Striking the iron while hot is more a rule than an exception in the case of Bharatiya Janata Party.

Amit Shah seeks these favourable conditions to develop in both the States either on their own or with the help of external forces. How and why this happens is not the point to be argued upon but when does this happen is the moot question. In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP is sitting pretty in power and there is no immediate threat to the rule of Chandrababu Naidu.

"But there are a number of factors that could crop up in future. No regime is devoid of corruption and there is always a possibility of such a charge coming up. There are no holy cows now-a-days and it is easier to smear anyone. Huge projects coming up, SEZs and collaborations...all give scope for corruption. We are in no hurry" the BJP leader adds.

So far, the party has not started sparring with its ally in Andhra Pradesh in any way, but the exit of M Venkaiah Naidu from active politics has led to speculation in this regard. Observers feel that the equation between the two, the BJP and the TDP, could no longer be the same. Within the BJP too, a section is gleeful that Venkaiah Naidu would no more be able to keep the bond between the two as strong. Only time would tell us whether they are right. But, TDP is considered BJP's all-weather ally now.

In fact, the TDP government is too dependent on the BJP munificence. It needs the Centre's handholding through and through to tide over its financial crisis as well as for developing the State. Not just for the present, Andhra Pradesh would certainly require such a handholding for the next ten years, too, to emerge as a developed State due to the nature of its economy. Its capital is yet another challenge to the ruling party.

Naturally, this would force the TDP to be extremely cautious in its dealings with the BJP. The options for the BJP are many here and if it wants to queer the pitch for the TDP, it could easily. The party at present is looking at the various social groupings that could be tapped for future exigencies. This could turn out to be TDP's Achilles Heel.

Of course, there are rumours making round that the YSRCP could turn out to be BJP's friend in future. The former may be dreaming of it but the latter is in no hurry. "Sheer speculation... this one. Jagan's cases are pending in courts. A lot could happen in the next two years. If he comes out clean, there could be a room for speculation. Not at this juncture,” BJP sources point out.

In the case of Telangana, it is a different challenge for the BJP. Going by its own surveys and the backgrounders given to it by its affiliates, the BJP realises that beating the TRS at the hustings would be very difficult. There is simply no way the party could dream of overcoming this obstacle. At the most we would be in the third place overall,” party sources add.

Plan ''A'' does not work for the BJP here. Hence, Amit Shah is sure to look at Plan 'B’ and even Plan C here. The TRS leadership should be wary of these moves. There is no anti-incumbency factor as of now in Telangana (to some extent this could be true of AP). Yet, its leadership should not be lowering its guard.

The firm stand of the Centre in not allowing delimitation till 2026 is a blow to the TRS leadership. Such a delimitation would have provided room for greater manouevering for K Chandrashekar Rao.

The BJP leadership is fully aware of the political implications of delimitation and how it would benefit the ruling parties in both the States to overcome the dissidence factor to a great extent as both the governments have been encouraging what the Opposition terms as defections. It would be interesting to see what those leaders who migrated to the ruling parties "impressed by the development all around" would prefer to do if tickets are denied in the next elections. Well, that will create another verdant hunting ground for the BJP which is also mastering the art of poaching.