Demystifying Kashmir saga and way forward

It has been a year since Kashmir turned on its head and went on the path of self-destruction ostensibly under a new leadership and new foot soldiers. Burhan Wani’s death, in an encounter on July 8, 2016, led to the outpouring of emotions which got converted to extreme violence and led to a change in the nature of the conflict.

Why Kashmir is volatile?

• Jammu & Kashmir, then ruled by a king, acceded to India in 1947 through Article 370 of the Constitution of India.

• Over the years, that Article has been breached many times.

• Kashmir Valley, home to seven million people, is the centre of the conflict.

• The people of the Valley have reacted aggressively to the denial of the autonomy that was promised when J&K acceded to India.

• A small number wants the Valley to become part of Pakistan.

• An overwhelming majority demands azadi.

• Every government in J&K and at the Centre has responded to the challenge with more warnings, more troops and more laws.

What is the reason for recent conflicts?

• The people of the Kashmir Valley have alternated between hope and despair.

• The current slide to chaos began in July 2016 with the killing of Burhan Wani.

• The state government has remained passive and helpless while the armed forces have implemented a muscular policy to quell dissent and disturbance.

• Since July 2016 and up to January 20, 2017, the violence in J&K claimed 75 lives.

• Besides, 12,000 people were injured, 1,000 lost vision in one eye due to pellet injuries and five were blinded.

Turn of events

• 2011-2013: Was the peaceful period.

• 2008-2010: The separatists attempted a strategy of combining terror and street turbulence to make their struggle more relevant.

• 2011-2013 : was a recovery time which the Indian establishment failed to cash-in on despite its default actions of changed strategy of outreach and engagement, and the interlocutors’ genuine attempt at discerning the aspirations and seeking the path of compromise.

The ray of hope created in the people, especially the youth, did not find matching energy or a sense of commitment and continuity in the establishment. The demand by the state government to do away with the AFSPA and the contestation by the army only helped create wrong narratives and took the focus away from the emerging situation.

• Drift was the order of the day. It is this drift and the dashing of hope of the people that led to the rise of Burhan Wani and the renewed romanticism with the gun. It was brushed aside as an isolated resurgence among renegades but the groundswell of support eluded our assessment.

• The engagement with the people once again became transactional, providing the window that was needed by the separatists to energise the movement.

• Pakistan started focusing on the Jammu sector because it was easier to infiltrate and execute actions there in a single night.

Present situation

• Kashmir has been under abnormal situation since July 2016 where there is a prolonged curfew, continuous demonstrations and lot of people have got injured and have died.

• In August 2016, there was an all-party marathon meeting of 8 hours chaired by PM on Kashmir situation. This meeting was the first engagement of the Modi government with the Kashmir issue.

PM’s message

• One message that has come out from the meeting is that the entire political spectrum of the country is worried about what is happening in Kashmir and is concerned about it.

• The PM’s address has stated that all doors of government and country is open for every Kashmiri. It is an important statement which shows the intentions of the political leadership. Apart from it, it has been clarified that Kashmir is integral part of India and there will be no compromise on it.

• There will be no adjustment with terrorism. India will continue to fight against it and elements which promote terrorism.

• For the first time, India raised the issue of PoK where it is clarified by the PM that India will also talk to people of PoK. This is important in the wake of the agitation going on in various cities and towns of PoK against the fraud elections recently held.
• The PoK also includes Gilgit and Baltistan. One-third of it is handed over by Pakistan to the Chinese.

The Vajpayee connection

• PM involved the name of former PM Vajpayee in dealing with Kashmir issue and had made open statements. PM Vajpayee had been a very popular figure in Kashmir and was seen as a change-maker.

• He was the person who could think out of box. While addressing Kashmiris, he said that insaniyat is more important than constitution. Thus, he entirely changed the course of narrative in Kashmir.

• The present PM is expected to take on the Kashmir matters further with former PM Vajpayee’s approach. An essential part of PM Vajpayee’s formula was a kind of political initiative which he initiated in Kashmir in terms of Insaniyat, Kashmiriyat and Jamooriyat. The present PM has hinted on following the same path.

The Union home minister has already made it clear that all the stakeholders in Kashmir will be talked to. The process of identification of these stakeholder has begun and this will take place with the local government. These issues will be focus of attention of the government including the opposition party to have stretched on the need for dialogue.

What next?

• The PM has not given any concrete framework on Kashmir though he has given direction. It is good in a way as it is not a knee-jerk reaction.

• In past it has been observed that political meetings of this kind and there will be immediate reaction to it, which in long run doesn’t help. This time, the all-party meeting was a consultative meeting. The PM heard everyone out and there was collating on the suggestions. The concrete policy will be drafted very soon. Earlier dialogues did not create any long term resolution of Kashmir issue.

• This time, the government is taking its time, it is seriously studying the issue and wants to take measured step about what it means to be in Kashmir and have a game plan.

PoK issue

• There was a strong implicit message for Pakistan when India clearly said that it is willing to talk to people of PoK.

• The issue of no compromise with terror and no talks with Pakistan given the atmosphere. If any talks are to be held, there will be talks on Kashmir of PoK only.

• It is first time that a PM has raised PoK topic openly else every time there is a parliament resolution passed where PoK is part of India.

• People are waiting for government of India to spell out their stand.

• He drew attention to excesses committed by Pakistan state on its own regions and minorities. He even alluded of the fact that Pakistan has been guilty of using fighter aircraft against its own citizens in Balochistan.

• In the state of J&K, there is state of Gilgit-Baltistan which was earlier called the Federally Administered Tribal Area where, Gilgit-Baltistan particularly is in a twilight zone.

• It is neither part of Pakistan in full sense like other provinces. Here the citizens do not enjoy democratic rights that the other citizens of the state have. Technically Gilgit-Baltistan can be described as equivalent of disputed of area.

India’s Kashmir

• The PM has reminded the citizens of India, many of whom may not remember the historical detail that Kashmir is not an issue by itself, it is part of the composite state of J&K and Pakistan is illegally occupying its part.

• The real significance is that PM has drawn attention to the four parts of state of Jammu and Kashmir- Jammu + Ladakh + Kashmir + PoK.

• He reminded his interlocutors in the all party meeting as well as a signal to Pakistan that, for India, the concern is about the composite state of J&K which had acceded or joined India in October 1948 and Kashmir cannot be seen in isolation.

• In 1994, Parliament passed a unanimous resolution where they mentioned that Kashmir is an integral part of India including PoK. In a similar Independence Day speech by former PM Narsimha Rao, he mentioned that the only unfinished agenda was getting back the PoK.

• The present also PM asked the people to talk about the atrocities committed on the people of PoK and the problems they are facing should be highlighted. He suggested a two-way road map:

• The people belonging to that region get in touch with those who are residing currently in PoK and expose the miserable conditions they are living in

• The Indian mission should also try and build up on this narrative.

• This is a different approach that has no precedence. As far as India’s Pakistan policy is concerned, such clear cut mention of PoK and actions that can be possible taken is departure from past.

• The PM is actually advocating that the Indian state should reach out, also encouraging the people in J&K who have family and friends in PoK to ascertain the actual conditions on the ground and apprise the global community about the excesses being committed by Pakistani state and also, the denial of certain basic human rights, particularly the democratic norms and principles.

• The Indian mission given freedom to obtain inputs from those residents of PoK Balochistan who all had to flee Pakistan and now residing elsewhere, does mark a certain assertiveness as far as India’s Pakistan policy is concerned.

• When the PM mentions that PoK remains underdeveloped, people are facing lot of problems and in India, there is relative peace, people have democratic rights; not only a political but a multi-dimensional approach is being undertaken.

• Thus, PM is trying to widen the base, in terms of the issues in which Kashmir issue as located in the entire J&K can be addressed.

Involving the Kashmiris

• The first CBM- confidence building measure towards people of Kashmir will be decision on use of pellet guns which is a big issue in Kashmir.

• The PM talked about the people of J&K whether Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, Buddhists to contact people in different regions of India and tell them the kind of development that has happened in the state and also compare it to development in another states.

• The priority of government is restoration of normalcy. The PM has given clues to the young people who were major part of the agitators.

• He gave clues by telling that Kashmiris that they are our people, a majority of Kashmiris are peace loving people and there is a small section of people who are misguided.

• In addition, there is a neighbouring country which is stoking fire. The government has given the assurance of addressing all the problems but never the national security will be compromised.

• The state is reeling under acute unemployment and lot of analyst have given the reasons that most of the demonstrators have been the unemployed youth generally.

• PM has talked about development in the region and has given a rough policy on Kashmir.

• Once the people of PoK compare their existence with rest of India and also J&K, they will understand that Azadi for Kashmir is not a legal not a political option. The people of J&K do not see themselves as becoming a part of Pakistan.

• Their entire grievances are about the way in which autonomy package has been understood or implemented. The PM has been able to grasp the issue so far.

• If PM is able to provide appropriate development options, along with that, for the youth there is education, jobs and whatever be the other skill sets and other human security issues- like access to medical colleges, hospital, modern technology, the Kashmir valley will see more peace. No doubt, these issues have been identified in the past but it lacked policy backed actions and political rhetoric followed whenever there is unrest.

• The 80000 crore package given to J&K, it is not just meant for building roads electricity, it is for all round development of every part of J&K.

• So, every region should get its share of development money so that good education, employment for youth, modern healthcare and encourage tourism.

• The point that J&K assembly still has vacant seats from the PoK region representation shows that India is determined that PoK is part of India only.

Internationalisation of the issue

• The very nature of the issue was such that it should have been settled at the bilateral table of India and Pakistan, but the idealistic faith of Nehru in the international institutions have hampered the cause of India.

• The cold war politics has provided fillip to the Kashmiri problem with the US supporting the Pakistan and its allies in Arab world.

• Indo-China war in 1962 has created a deep rift. China was demanding parts of the Indian territory in Aksai Chin as part of Tibet like in Arunachal Pardesh. It also heralded support to Pakistan militarily and strategically, though not always overtly.

• The strategic location of Pakistan and its open border with Afghanistan has continued its relevance for the western world in the post-cold war era and has remained immune from its sin of fomenting terrorism in India. However India’s surging economy and its good relations with the Arab states has counterbalanced the international follow-ups on the issue except by China.

• In fact China besides capturing Aksai Chin, is also administrating the area of Shaksgan valley ceded by Pakistan from the Pakistan occupied Kashmir, which lies north of the Siachin glacier – the world’s highest battleground. India fears that in case we demilitarize the glacier, China will occupy it and thus can control the river systems and other issues central to India’s interest.

Current situation

• There were two by-elections — in Srinagar and Anantnag constituencies. Srinagar constituency, spread over three districts, went to the polls on April 9.

• The voter turnout was 7.14%, the lowest in 28 years. There was widespread stone-pelting.

• Re-polling in 38 booths took place and no voter turned up in 20 of those 38 booths, and the voting percentage in the re-poll was 2.02%.

• Meanwhile, polling in Anantnag constituency was postponed to May 25.

• The non-vote is actually a vote of no confidence against the state government and the Central government.

• The situation cannot be retrieved through a ‘muscular’ policy — tough talk by ministers, dire warnings from the Army Chief, deploying more troops or killing more protesters.

Issues

• It may be important lessons to note that the new militancy characterized by the presence of social media-wielding youth was little understood by the establishment, intelligence agencies and the media. Their assessments were archaic and based on assumed beliefs.

• The youth were building a new narrative of resistance through social media outreach. The state was observing this but did little to launch an effective counter in the domain that mattered — social media or any form of communication to the public.

• Social media, ideology and religion are the last things that the security establishment understands because it involves rebooting, relearning, mastering technology and most importantly, getting to know the religious underpinnings of the time.

• With their typical tenure-based approach to problem solving, the security establishment does not display the capability to assess intellectually or learn nuances beyond the ordinary response involving gun-on-gun.

• Intelligence agencies have a better measure of institutional continuity but lack the means of persuasion to convince and thereby alter understanding and planning.

In the domain of military deployment

• The army always laid great stress on North Kashmir. This was quite natural with three of its major formation headquarters located there and the task of counter infiltration based on LoC deployment which is essentially army-oriented.

• By contrast, South Kashmir had only a single Rashtriya Rifles (RR)) force headquarters but it had Pulwama, Shopian, Anantnag and Pampore, all trouble spots where the better educated youth reside.

What should be done?

• The core issue is not holding territory, it is giving people confidence in the Indian project.

• The border with Pakistan should be defended by all means, taking deterrent action against infiltrators but ‘counter-terrorist operations’ in the Valley should be put on hold.

• The presence of the army and paramilitary forces should be reduced and the responsibility of maintaining law and order in the Kashmir Valley should be handed over to the J&K police.

• Interlocutors should be appointed to pave the way for talks.

• The Central government should begin a dialogue with all the stakeholders including civil society groups, student leaders and eventually the separatists.

Way forward

• Absence of or lower level of military achievements does not mean normality. It is the social parameters that need to be viewed.

• The virtual denudation of the southern belt below Shopian Kulgam and the overall inadequacy of troops in the south allowed local militancy to bloom. When it did, we fought it in the physical domain while it was actually flowering in the virtual and psychological domain.

• The deployment of all forces must be more balanced and no premature withdrawal should be executed on the basis of statistical inputs.

• The fight in the psychological domain can no longer be ignored. This needs an approach beyond what the army has provided; the army’s achievements are highly creditable but can no longer remain the only domain of focused strategic communication.

• The continuity factor in a hybrid conflict environment has to be taken into consideration. Personnel management practices cannot override national needs and the best talent must be made available to fight the enemies of the state. It’s only then that the campaign becomes comprehensive.
• India should allay the fears of Kashmiri people as suggested while making way for Kashmiri Pandits to return to the valley.
• India should dismantle the terrorist infrastructure created by Pakistan through diplomatic pressures and military muscularity.

• Some also suggest that India can explore the option of opening the borders by recognizing LoC as “soft border” so that people to people contact enhances, as worked upon by Parvej Musharraf and Dr Manmohan Singh in and around 2005-06.

Expected Questions

• Challenges in Kashmir ranges from increasing radicalization among the youths, usage of new modes of resistance like social media, traditional approach of security establishment to deal with issues at hand to issues related with military deployment. Discuss.

• India’s approach to Pakistan’s double standards on terrorism and human rights violation has given a diplomatic shock to Pakistan. Analyse.

Syllabus

General Studies 3

•Role of external state and non-state actors in creating challenges to internal security.

General Studies 2

• India and its neighborhood- relations.

By Gudipati Rajendera Kumar