Is Pak heading for military coup?

With growing tension between Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and opposition Pakistan Tehreek- e-Insaf (PTI) of Imran Khan, there are murmurs that the country is heading for a military coup. Even though a section of political observers say that with General Raheel Sharif as the Army chief there is no possibility of another coup, the current political scenario remains intensely volatile.

On Thursday, cricketer-turned-politician Khan kicked off Azadi March against the Nawaz Sharif government. Khan is leading thousands of his party workers, mostly youngsters, to Islamabad. He has plans to hold a sit-in right at the heart of federal Capital.

His agenda is to force Prime Minister Sharif to step down. Khan alleges the PM came to power by rigging the general elections held in May 2013. And so, Sharif must resign. And this demand has led to heightened tension between the ruling dispensation and the PTI.

On Friday, a convoy of PTI leadership was allegedly attacked by supporters of Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), during the long march. About 50 PTI supporters were reportedly injured in the attack near Gujranwala city, about 100 kilometres from Lahore.

Khan himself confirmed the attack and alleged it was orchestrated by PM Sharif to assassinate the PTI leadership.

"I confirm the attack on my party's convoy which left my party workers injured. I believe Nawaz Sharif engineered this attack. Let me tell you, we will be protesting until Nawaz Sharif steps down," Khan told Mail Today over telephone. PTI vice-president Shah Mahmood Qureshi claimed that he has credible information that PM Sharif and the chief minister of Pakistan Punjab have ordered the Punjab Police to attack party's leadership. "It was a cowardly attack aimed at assassinating PTI leadership," Qureshi told Mail Today. It's been quite some time that the rivalry between the two sides has been simmering.

Ever since Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) claimed victory in last year's elections, Khan has been alleging the 2013 polls were rigged. He had demanded re-election in four constituencies. But the demand was not fulfilled. Sharif had agreed to hold the re-elections in four constituencies. But that was before Khan announced in July to lead the long march. On Tuesday, ahead of the march, Khan reiterated his stand and said, "PM Sharif had stolen our mandate in the general elections. Time has come to force him to resign and call for another election." Things have changed since then, leading to speculation as to what is in store for Pakistan.

In fact, Khan - who left for Islamabad on Thursday with thousands of his party workers, including women and children, from Lahore - has put the government in the alert mode. The federal Capital has already been handed over to the Army. About 31,000 personnel of the law enforcement agencies have been tasked to ensure security of Islamabad residents, including foreigners and diplomats.

On Friday afternoon, the federal government advised foreign diplomats residing in Islamabad to avoid unnecessary travels across the country. "Pakistan's foreign ministry has advised us to stay at our homes as things are not good here," an Islamabad-based western diplomat told Mail Today.

According to the diplomat, situation in Pakistan is "critical" and is a matter of concern, considering that the US-led forces will leave Afghanistan this year."Much of the military equipment that's being withdrawn from Afghanistan is travelling through Pakistan to the southern port city of Karachi. Volatile situation in Pakistan may fuel anti-West sentiments here which may trouble Pakistan's relationship with NATO and USA," the diplomat said.

Just when it seemed democracy was resending out tentative roots in Pakistan's soil, the drive launched by Opposition leaders Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri has shaken the polity again. Last year's general elections, which was swept by the PML-N, led to first peaceful democratic transition in Pakistan's history after one elected government completed its full term and handed over power to another elected dispensation. But some elements in what is often described as "the establishment" were unhappy about the development and it was not long before whispers did the rounds in Islamabad that these same elements did not want to see Sharif strengthen his grip on power.

Months before the elections in May 2013, Tahir-ul- Qadri's Pakistan Awami Tehrik party organised a "long march" that saw thousands of the Canada-based cleric's supporters occupying one of the main thoroughfares of Islamabad and bringing life to a standstill for several days. At that time too, there was considerable speculation that Qadri was being backed by shadowy elements of the establishment which did not want democracy to plant deep roots in Pakistan.

This time round, tens of thousands of workers of Qadri's party and Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf are marching from Lahore to Islamabad to pressure the Prime Minister to step down.

Khan has pledged to "deal with" with Sharif when he reaches the capital. Qadri wants a "revolution" that will oust Sharif's government, which the cleric has accused of widespread corruption. Khan's grouse is that Sharif, government officials and senior judges were allegedly involved in a conspiracy to rig last year's polls to ensure his party was defeated. The key issue now for the people of Pakistan is whether they would like to see democracy grow stronger or allow the current protests lead to a situation where the elected government is weakened, giving the establishment more room to manipulate events in the political arena.