Modi Wave: A delusion than reality

“We have to learn from Arvind Kejriwal’s party, AAP involved masses as well.” This is what Rahul Gandhi had to pronounce while conceding reprehensible thrashing in the freshly concluded Delhi Assembly elections, addressing media yesterday evening.

He further added that both the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and the Congress need to connect more with general public and bid adieu to the conventional ways of doing politics. But, the BJP spokespersons shared different outlook and lambasted Junior Gandhi for painting the saffron party in the same color as the Congress.

For these, highly alluring ‘Modi Wave’ is already doing rounds across the nation, especially among the youngsters, and the colossal undercurrent in the nation, which can be most visibly observed on social media, is a full-size corroboration in itself.

At least what the Assembly poll results in Delhi, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan suggest, ‘Modi Wave’ qualifies more to be a delusion than reality. Only after examining the intact scenario with a magnifying glass will you be able to discern the bona fide picture on ground. Picking up Rajasthan first, BJP won in as many as 162 seats out of 199 declared results.

The 60-year-old Vasundhara Raje made a comeback with a record mandate, which is bigger than her party’s performance in 2003, when the BJP won 120 seats with a huge share margin of 39.85 per cent. But this landslide victory can’t be attributed to Modi by any means, as no incumbent political party has ever returned to form a government in the western state, for the last twenty years, since 1993.

The results showcase prolongation of the same trend, nothing spectacular. Talking about Chattisgarh, BJP did end up retaining power with 49 seats out of 90 in the state, but only after experiencing close brushes from the Congress, which pocketed 39. In 2003 and 2008 respectively, the seat share was 50 each for the BJP.

Despite Modi expansively campaigning in the state ruled by Dr. Raman Singh and many of the front-line Congress leaders losing their lives to Naxal violence in the recent past, the election was still tightly contested. However, the final poll outcome doesn’t justify it entirely.

Coming to Shivraj Singh Chauhan ruled Madhya Pradesh; the victory was on expected lines. Not only Chauhan’s government is elected for the third consecutive innings, similar to Chattisgarh, the seat count has also increased from 143 in 2008 to 165 this time. However, the BJP won 173 seats in 2003 from total quota of 230. But naming it Modi’s magic would be unjustified, as it was noticeably Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s triumph.

The mandate was for the way he improved fiscal health of one of the ‘BIMARU’ states. It’s also learnt that Chauhan requested the BJP high command not to send Modi for extensive canvassing in Madhya Pradesh for the fear of losing Muslim votes. Even Modi’s face was missing from the BJP hoardings in the state.

Additionally, weak opposition and infighting between Jyotiraditya Scindia and Digvijay Singh led factions worked for the government in office. Lastly, the entire theory of Modi being the darling of urban youth lost allure with the kind of results appearing in Delhi. BJP did materialize as the single largest party with 31 seats, undeniably improving its seat count, but still miles away from comfortable majority. It managed just 20 and 23 seats in 2003 and 2008 respectively from the total of 70.

Bulk of the urban youth votes, on which Modi relies for his popularity, moved to Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which won in 28 constituencies. Fascinatingly, this was the only state where Modi factor was being clearly pushed as a trump card during polls.

Also, had Dr. Harshvardhan not been named the BJP CM candidate just 45 days before polling, the results could have been depressing for the BJP. Despite there being huge rush in Modi rallies in the national capital, the BJP couldn’t secure clear mandate. Modi was ineffective even in Himachal and Karnataka elections earlier.

During Karnataka polls in particular, BJP lost Bangalore seat, which was considered to be its long time stronghold, despite him canvassing at length. The urban youth of the state, including 3.5 million first–timer voters, who are known to be highly well-informed and also hold sizable presence in social media, voted for Congress including in Bangalore. These poll results apparently make a point very clear that elections are won only with cumulative efforts.

Just banking on charisma of a single leader can be suicidal for the fate of a party. BJP won’t complain till they are coming up with good shows, but the Congress and Rahul Gandhi definitely need to reassess their political strategies at 10 Janpath now.