Economics Nobel for Rajan?

Hyderabad: Will former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan win Nobel Prize in Economics this year? It looks like there are ample chances for the noted economist to win the most coveted award, with US-based Clarivate Analytics listing him among the favourites for this year’s honour.

As per the Nobel Committee schedule, the economics prize will be announced in Stockholm on Monday.

Rajan, who as the Reserve Bank of India governor earned the sobriquet of rock star for his candid comments on economy and policies, is currently the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the Booth School of Business, University of Chicago. His three-year term as RBI governor ended on September 4, 2016.

US-based Clarivate Analytics, earlier a Thomson Reuters unit, publishes a list of possible Nobel Prize winners based on research citations, ahead of the formal announcement by the Nobel committee. Giving the list of six possible candidates for the economics Nobel this year, Clarivate said these were Citation Laureates - standouts whose research is clearly "of Nobel Class" according to its significance and utility. Rajan is expected to win the prize for his ‘contributions illuminating the dimensions of decisions in corporate finance’.

Exactly one year after his term as RBI governor came to an end, Rajan published a book with his "commentary and speeches" to convey what it was like to be at the helm of the central bank in "those turbulent but exciting times".

Rajan, who was considered a vocal RBI Governor, in his book "I Do What I Do" said the demonetisation tool used by the Indian government to drive out black money could have long-term benefits but its short-term economic costs would outweigh them.

"I was asked by the government in February 2016 for my views on demonetisation, which I gave orally. Although there might be long-term benefits, I felt the likely short-term economic costs would outweigh them, and felt there were potentially better alternatives to achieve the main goal," he wrote.

The Modi government undertook the demonetisation drive on November 8, 2016 by banning high denomination Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes.

Rajan is said to have predicted the 2008 market crash caused by the housing market crisis in the US that put its economy into deep recession and set off a global slowdown.

In 2011, he published the acclaimed "Fault Lines" on how hidden financial fractures threaten the world economy. He has won the British magazine Central Banking's Central Banker of the Year award for his handling of the rupee crisis in 2013 and bringing back foreign investors to the country.

A graduate of the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, Rajan served as visiting professor at Stockholm School of Economics and at Kellogg School of Management. He was also a visiting professor at MIT Sloan School of Management.

Apart from Rajan, other favourites in the list include Colin F Camerer of California Institute of Technology, George F Loewenstein of Carnegie Mellon University, Robert E Hall of Stanford University, Harvard's Michael C Jensen and Stewart C Myers of MIT, all from the US.

According to information available on Clarivate's website, in the last 15 years, 45 of the selected researchers had gone on to receive a Nobel -- nine in the same year in which they were tipped by Clarivate and 18 within two years of the distinction.