Chances of climate deal higher, but ambition lower

Back in 2009, many had hoped for a sweeping treaty to cut the greenhouse gas emissions that are changing the climate. This time, nearly 200 countries will choose their own policies in the hope of binding both rich and poor into the effort to combat global warming. With negotiations set to close on December 11, two alternative draft texts are circulating, which all nations agreed on Friday to accept as the basis for talks.

At 38 and 48 pages long, they have shrunk from above 50 at the start of the week. At the same stage of Copenhagen, the drafts ran to 300 pages. "I'm optimistic," said Robert Stavins, director of Harvard University's Environmental Economics Program. "It's drastically different from Copenhagen." But the text still has hundreds of brackets, marking points of disagreement on everything from finance for developing nations beyond 2020 to where to set the long-term goal for cutting or phasing out the use of fossil fuels.

"It's hugely frustrating," EU chief negotiator Elina Bardram said. But she said there was no comparison with Copenhagen as China, the world's biggest emitter, was determined to be part of the deal and the presence of 150 heads of state at the start of the talks on Monday had shown strong political will. Many say the price of this relative harmony is the conference's lack of ambition to set steep, binding emissions limits and create the legal tools to enforce them.

The Copenhagen summit failed after developing countries including Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Sudan blocked a deal accepted by others. Even if Paris does not achieve a new global deal, 186 of 195 countries have already submitted national plans for combating climate change beyond 2020 and adapting to changes such as droughts, floods, desertification, heatwaves and rising sea levels.

All sides agree, however, that those plans are still far too weak to limit a rise in world temperatures to a U N goal of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. Six years ago, Denmark angered many delegations by issuing its own draft text in an attempt to cut through hundreds of disagreements. U N climate chief Christiana Figueres said on Friday that a similar surprise text this time was "completely ruled out". So were the talks looking more promising than Copenhagen at this stage? "Definitely."

By Alister Doyle and Barbara Lewis