Assam heads for photo-finish

A survey of the AICC on the Assam poll scene has predicted a hung Assembly. The survey conducted by a Hyderabad based research organisation, People's Pulse', which has earlier conducted similar surveys in Bihar, Kashmir and Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, was handed over to the AICC leadership today afternoon.

What is interesting about this survey is that the Congress leadership has along been claiming that it would form the Government once again in the State due to the divisive agenda of the BJP leadership in the country. Being a minority dominated State, its spokespersons here have been claiming that though it would not be a cakewalk for it, it would emerge comfortably to form the government.

One of the reasons for the optimism was the troublesome alliance of the BJP and the AGP which has already led to a split in the AGP with some senior leaders opposing the same. The survey, at best, is optimistic that the Congress will emerge as the single largest party in the Assam 2016 elections, which is set to throw up a hung Assembly.

This is a worrisome factor for the Congress as it is aware of the tendency of the undecided voters to swing to extremes in the last days. The split in minority votes is another major factor that is worrisome to the party high command. Assam being the only State where the BJP could come to power in all the States going to elections, the Congress leadership is trying to make it a no-holds barred battle to prevent it from coming to power.

They survey, however, says that the Congress will buck the incumbency factor of fifteen years to win only 45-50 of the 126 Assembly constituencies that go to polls next month. The BJP will win 35-40 and the AIUDF would get 15-20 seats. The AGP, BPF and others would pick the rest. The survey was conducted from February 18-28 in 19 Assembly seats.

One of the key findings of the report was that the Congress has retained its traditional vote share to garner 37.4 percent of the popular vote. The BJP, which has increased at the expense of the AGP, is a close second with being strong with 33.2 percent. On the Chief Minister choice, Tarun Gogoi led strongly in the voters’ preference for the next CM with 39.9 percent backing him.

BJP Chief ministerial candidate Sarbananda Sonowal got 32.5 percent. Congress leader, who shifted to the BJP, Himanta Biswa Sarma got 8.9 percent vote. AIUDF leader Badruddin Ajmal and AGP leader Prafulla Kumar Mohanta got 5.4 percent and 3.8 percent respectively. Immigrants’ issue continues to dominate the voter’s mind. 52 percent said it is an important issue and disagreed with the question that it is being blown out of proportion. Only 23 percent found it blown out of proportion.

B Suresh Babu, Hyderabad Central University’s doctoral research scholar, who analysed the data explained, “This is an issue that is pulling the BJP down. When we asked if Modi is successful in implementing the promises made during his 2014 Parliament campaign, 77.7 percent said that he has failed. Only 20.4 percent said that he is fulfilling those promises. Modi’s main promise was that after the Lok Sabha elections not a single immigrant would be allowed to stay in Assam”.

The Congress’ main advantage seems to be Gogoi. In all, 33.2 percent of the voters found his performance good, with another 40 percent finding it okay. Only 26.4 percent found his performance bad. Updating the NRC, prompt payment of salaries, improvement of law and order and overall development of Assam has gone in his favour.

His rival Sonowal, who began as a firebrand youth leader, and has been termed a ‘Jatiya Nayak’. When voters were asked if he still enjoys the same status, 61.6 percent replied in the negative and only 21.5 percent replied positively, the survey pointed out. Incidentally, 43.6 percent of the voters said the Congress was a better choice while the BJP got 33.7 percent on this score.

The key finding, however, is that anti-incumbency at a local level is plaguing all political parties. 43.6 percent emphatically said that they would not re-elect their present MLA. Only 30 percent said they would re-elect the sitting MLA. Fresh faces would be making all the difference, in the final run, it is being felt.