UP verdict set to spark realignments

The heat and dust of the electoral battle is slowly settling down on the nation. The semi-finals, as everyone called it, yielded stunning results, the whys' of which are yet to be analysed by various quarters. These results could have a lasting impact on electoral politics if one goes by the voting pattern.

Stop taking the voter for granted-that is the message that has been sounded to every politico. Political circles are wondering where and how the latest verdict will impact electoral politics, should they in the first place. Well, the upcoming scenario is not hard to conjure up.

Irrespective of the accusations of Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav about EVMs, not all regional satraps can afford to ignore the ‘erudite’ perceptions of the voters. A sense of unease is setting in among them, a mindset that could lead to some cold calculations, and possibly make way for inexplicable realignments.

In effect, this is a political recalibration time. The finals, aka General Elections, are a mere two years away. With the 2019 D-Day looming large, regional players are left with hardly any time for eleventh hour course corrections given that half of their term has been done with.

Each might adopt a different course in attempting to explore the voters' psyche and win them over even while being consciously aware of the ‘vibrant’ economic nationalism that is sweeping the country. On a closer read it spells as roads, power, water, employment, quality education and health care with law and order being on top of the priority list.

Here is where the regional party leaders need to be cautious. A pan-Indian leadership of Narendra Modi implies a much more shrunken political space for the regional parties. Even if people prefer to have a proven ‘performing’ local player in the State, there will always be a good chunk of voters, who might get swayed by sentiments.

Here comes the first condition. A local or regional party, if in power, has to be working really hard to please the voter. Election manifestos and poll promises unless implemented will render more harm and boomerang, which is a lesson the Akhileshs and Rawats learnt the bitter way.

The new maxim could be playing it safe rather than playing it brash. The smaller players could prefer friendship with the BJP as a viable means to extend their own political life. This is a possibility that the BJP leadership is not ruling out. Questions were raised over the studied silence of the likes of Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik post-demonetisation.

Going by the approval of the policy in such large numbers now, the silence could be replaced by open appreciation. Although, the opposition could keep questioning the economic policies of Modi, the stridency would be somewhat lost. Gone also are the days when State-level ruling parties would look at people as vote banks.

There will be a renewed interest towards the marginalized sections, as also OBCs. Not surprisingly, the concerns of the farmer, the most neglected of the lot, could become the fulcrum of government policies and political campaigns. Concerns of young India have to be assessed and addressed in right earnest.

The ‘reawakened’ Omar Abdullah has certainly hit the nail on the head of the Opposition with his 'forget 2019 and start planning for 2024 Lok Sabha polls" tweet. This is sending signals of him trying to inch closer to Modi. Some of the regional players like Mamata Benerjee, who had been rallying a coalition against the BJP, may find it hard to take forward the same on the strength of irrational and illogical opposition to everything that the Centre does.

In fact, it would be interesting to see if Mamata continues to play her game of minority appeasement in West Bengal to retain her stranglehold on the electorate. Labeling all those daring to question her policies as a Maoist, (a la Hindutva forces calling their critics anti-national) will not do any good to her. Likewise, the Left could not be ill-treated in the same breath, any longer too.

All said and done, this is perhaps the most opportune time for all anti-BJP forces to come together, if not for anything, at least to ensure their political survival. Meanwhile, there is little to cheer for the leadership of the two Telugu States now as Amit Shah redraws his blueprint for the South, particularly in the wake of the ambitious Southern hemisphere plans he has been drumming about.

The local BJP leadership will be taken to task for its non-performance. "Alliances will not be discouraged, but not at the cost of our strength. More of bargaining will go into the Lok Sabha seats in making the country Congress-mukt Bharat", sources point out. Sounds like a rendition of the New Year almanac? Eh? Well, this is the new political almanac. Just wait and watch.

By W Chandrakanth