Sharif’s ouster: Should India be worried?

Any major political or military event in Pakistan concerns India inasmuch as both countries are at daggers drawn on Kashmir. The ouster of Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif should certainly worry India for a good many reasons. He had dealt with six Indian Prime Ministers and had developed working relations with all of them.

With his business background, Sharif had realised that good trade and economic relations with India would ensure peace and harmony between the two nations. It is him more than any Pakistani Prime Minister who wanted to rein in the anti-India Pakistani military. In his second stint in 1997-99, Sharif had removed two Army chiefs in one year. He had appointed Pervez Musharraf after superseding other senior officers. It is another matter that Musharraf later staged a military coup and forced Sharif into exile.

The Pakistan Army thrives on antagonism with India and now Afghanistan, as it believes such a stance brings it political and pecuniary gains. Furthermore, Sharif had taken on the pro-army Supreme Court which has the controversial habit of dismissing elected civilian governments.

Although accused of rigging and manipulating elections, Sharif strove to establish the supremacy of the democratic State. Remember, Pakistan’s politic is based on three pillars – the Islamic Groups, the Army and Kashmir – all the three confront, bedevil and squeeze political democracy in the country.

Pakistan has a fledgling democracy which is yet to take firm roots. No civilian government in that country has ever completed its five-year term. Sharif too did not run the full term in his three stints as Prime Minister – 1990-93, 1997-99 and 2013-17. Earlier, he was ejected by Army and now by the Supreme Court.

His disproportionate income and assets were exposed by the Panama Papers leaked by law firm Mossack Fonesca. He has amassed wealth beyond his stated income, and his children had flats in expensive parts of London. That Sharif did not disclose his firm in UAE during filing his nominations for the National Assembly is another charge. Even his bête noir Imran Khan of Tehreek-e-Insaf party, too, had made faulty declarations of assets as a candidate.

The Supreme Court took cognisance of the Panama leaks and instituted a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) that included two Army officials.
The presence of the Army in JIT confirms that it was pursuing Sharif, who had tried to muscle into the Army’s turf, the Kashmir policy etc. The JIT submitted its report on 10th July and the Supreme Court gave its verdict without wasting time, on the 28th.

Invoking a clause of the Constitution that stressed Islamic virtues that a Prime Minister “be sagacious, righteous, non-profligate, honest and upright,” the apex court decreed that Sharif was “no longer fit to be the Prime Minister.” It asked the Election Commission to de-notify him from the National Assembly and ordered the National Accountability Bureau, an anti-corruption body, to file charges within six weeks for the trial to be completed in six months.

Unmistakably, the court has thrown Pakistan’s politics into turmoil as the General Elections are due in a year. The big question is what will happen to Sharif, Pakistani politics and India-Pakistan ties in the post-Sharif period? There are limited options for Sharif to escape the conspiratorial clutches of courts, the Army and the Jihadists.

On the other hand, Imran Khan is caught in sexual harassment complaints by the women workers in his party. The Army may leave it to the voters, as it is not keen on a take-over. Also the Supreme Court’s activism with a Messianic complex may not go down well with the voters who would want full democracy.

On India-Pakistan relations, there may not be much of an impact although a stable democratic government is better for dialogue than the Army. But on Kashmir, Sharif is on the same page as the Army and the Jihadists whose raison d’être is fomenting trouble in India. Sharif had somewhat kept the doors for dialogue open, but these may now be fully shut.

However, India need not worry as the US and China, the big influencers in the region, will not like, for different reasons, the India-Pakistan conflict to spiral out of control. (Writer is Prof of International Politics, Jamia Millia Islamia University, New Delhi)

By D K Giri