Conquering the opponent, winning the war

The abode of nine Nandi temples has given its electoral verdict, loud and clear. The Nandyal by-election outcome marks the culmination of a month-long, high-stake and no-holds-barred battle between two sworn political adversaries.

Such has been the intensity with which this ‘prestigious’ war has been fought between the Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the YSR Congress steered by YS Jaganmohan Reddy that nearly Rs 100 crore, reportedly, flowed like water. Come to think of it, in electoral parlance, it was just a by-poll!

At the end of the day, the ruling party’s Bhuma Brahmananda Reddy, nephew of Bhuma Nagi Reddy, whose untimely demise necessitated the by-poll, has had the last laugh with an overwhelming win. The billion rupee question is why and how YSRCP ceded its bastion? First and foremost, let us focus on the factors that facilitated the landslide.

High voter turnout and the edge that Brahmananda enjoyed across the constituency, barring a few pockets here and there, indicated a clear wave in his favour. It is unlikely that the wave was in favour of Naidu's rule because there are no tell-tale signals that suggest that his government has done exceptionally well so as to warrant a positive wave. Of course, it is not to say that there was no contribution from Naidu in the win.

A shrewd politician well-versed with AP's caste calculus, Naidu adopted a clever strategy while deploying a strong group of Reddy leaders for launching verbal assaults against Jagan. It is no coincidence that Somireddy Chandra Mohan Reddy from Nellore, Adinarayana Reddy of Jammalamadugu in Kadapa, and N Amaranatha Reddy from Chittoor, all ministers, emerged as vociferous Jagan-baiters in the run-up to the by-poll. Ironically, Amaranatha Reddy and Adinarayana Reddy won on YSRCP tickets in 2014, but later shifted loyalties to TDP. It's not for nothing that Naidu rewarded them with plum portfolios.

Also, given the dominance of Reddys in Nandyal, Naidu smartly did not draft many from his community, including his son Nara Lokesh, for electioneering. The grapevine is that Naidu would replicate the ‘success’ formula-Reddys vs Reddys in the 2019 elections in the Reddy-dominant Rayalaseema. Given this arithmetic, it should be a cake-walk for him if TDP repeats the Nandyal success even in 50 per cent of the Assembly constituencies in the politically sensitive region.

However, there is a catch. TDP's victory in Nandyal is largely due to a sympathy wave for the Bhuma family. On his part, Jagan did employ aggressive tactics to blunt the ruling party’s virulent diatribe and sympathy wave, but eventually he could only reduce the margin. The gap (27,466 votes) between Brahmananda Reddy and YSRCP's Silpa Mohan Reddy is huge. Taken from the other side, Jagan's nominee polled just 12,500 votes less than the 82,194 secured when Bhuma Nagi Reddy contested on its ticket in 2014, which implies that there has been no substantial erosion in YSRCP's core base. This factor ought to worry the TDP strategists, next time around.

Nevertheless, it may not be correct to presume that Jagan's vitriolic did YSRCP in. Verbal duels between Naidu and Jagan are nothing new. The latter’s comment that Naidu should be shot dead for his 'misdeeds' is not a good political etiquette as Naidu is the Chief Minister. Naidu was found equally guilty when he called his antagonist a 'psycho' on umpteen occasions.

To make matters worse and something that is nothing short of character assassination, Naidu, during the Kakinada campaigning, equated Jagan with the notorious Dera Sacha Sauda chief. Being in a constitutional position, can Naidu equate the Leader of the Opposition with a rapist, who is to serve 20 years in jail? It is not just in poor taste but outlandishly disgusting, when taken under any yardstick. But people on the street don't take such verbal duels seriously.

However, a key difference between TDP and YRSCP apparatus is that Naidu has put in place professional PR machinery that can over-magnify Jagan's virulent jabs or launch damage-control measures in double-quick time. Irrespective of the strategies, the bottom line is in conquering the opponent and winning the war.

Contrary to the perceptions of Naidu and his poll managers, it's the sympathy wave that did the trick for TDP. Otherwise, YSRCP would have won more than one counting round. Nandyal by-poll has once again proved that 2019 would be a straight battle between the two leaders with no chance whatsoever of a third player popping into the sweepstakes.

It is but natural that the wily TDP chief will employ all tricks in the political trade to keep Jagan at bay. However, there is no guarantee that the Nandyal success can be repeated in 2019. However, Naidu has the acumen to tilt the scales in his favour if Jagan fails to capitalise on TDP's acts of omissions and commissions and presents himself as a more viable alternative. As for the Congress party, which lost its deposit in Nandyal, it is goodbye forever from Andhra Pradesh.

By P Madhusudhan Reddy