Chandrababu best bet to lead anti-Modi front

Iconic 70's Hindi blockbuster, 'Sholay' was shot at fictional Ramgarh by Ramesh Sippy. The extraordinary script, tight editing, a marvellous cinematography and superhit songs, turned it into a sensational hit with people loving Jai, Veeru, Basanti and Gabbar too. When Thakur Baldev Singh (played brilliantly by Sanjeev Kumar) hires two ex-convicts to protect the village from Gabbar, the idea gets laughed away initially by everyone. Yet, the two friends prove a formidable company and Thakur's trust is not betrayed.

Remove the negative shades of those characters and replicate them in the present Ramanagara 'kathe' (story) of Karnataka politics, the story line is as gripping. This one is a long story with the possibilities of stretching like a soap opera with several twists and turns to keep the audience glued to the prime time show.

What began as an effort to keep the BJP out of power in Karnataka saw a mish mash of a gathering of political leaders at the swearing-in ceremony of H D Kumaraswamy sending out a hope of a new bonding of political forces in the country against the BJP-led NDA alliance (or whatever is left of it).

It still remains what it is – just a tentative step. It is so because too many ifs and buts would emerge in the long run in the knitting of a larger picture. But, it sounded interesting for several reasons. The optics felt strange. Because it was more a gathering of antonyms than synonyms. While the getting together of the Congress and JD(S) itself looked incongruous, the presence of, say a Mamata and Sitaram Yechury, or even a Kejriwal and Rahul Gandhi was somewhat surrealistic. "The leaders have not come here to support me but to give a message that there will be a big change in 2019," said H D Kumaraswamy after he took oath as the chief minister of Karnataka.

Perhaps that is a true message sent out. Because the coming together looked more like a social gathering and the language was also just phatic. One should not expect more to it. It was more to establish an atmosphere and the communication of feelings rather than of ideas and of logical and rational thoughts.

The dialogue between the leaders was at best a two-stroke conversation. Exchanges about the state of the weather and a person's health must have gone into it. It is more like the kind of noises a mother makes to her baby to keep it in good humour.

But there is one leader among them who could be thinking far and wide because he has acknowledged it as a step towards forming an anti-BJP coalition. The Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, N Chandrababu Naidu certainly looked a taller leader amongst them despite the presence of the likes of Sonia Gandhi, Mayawati and Mamata Benerjee.

If one is ever left wondering as to who could or would lead such a coalition, one must look to Naidu for answers. Naidu's stature separates him from the rest easily. He can match Sonia Gandhi in planning long-term and is also adept at reading the outcomes of combinations and social engineering strategies far better than the others. Moreover, he is the most acceptable leader for all others to deal with.

Chandrababu Naidu is simply the best face among them to lead such a front in future. The question, remains, however, will he do it. Without someone like Naidu leading the front, can one expect some cohesion despite the zeal of the participants in such an experiment? The regional party coalition or front is just an idea as of now and it is to be nurtured carefully and seriously if the anti-BJP forces want to take on an aggressive Modi-Amit Shah combine in 2019. Any disunity among these forces will lead to the decimation of Opposition to the BJP. Democracy thrives only in the presence of a strong Opposition and it is necessary for the democracy of the country that a strong and united opposition is in place.

Intrinsic to the concept are several challenges. A front of the regional parties with Congress joining hands without making any demands sounds good for the country, but, the problems to such an arrangement come from the Congress. The latter is not only not a friend to many in such a coalition, but also an enemy because of the local dynamics. Just consider one such coalition with both the Telugu Chief Ministers' becoming part of it. Will KCR be able to join hands with the Congress? No way. And if Naidu plans to woo the Congress into such an arrangement as a regional front coalition, does any Congress leader sail with him in Andhra Pradesh?

Mamata and Congress, AAP and Congress, Left and TMC...more questions than answers. This will be the real challenge for Naidu if he is forced to head the coalition. Yet, he is their best shot. Individually, he is the only one, other than the Left leaders, who has a credibility to lend weight to the arrangement because of his usual politically correct statements. Note that all others in the group photo of Bengaluru have landed in controversies with their observations (except for Sonia), at one time or the other. (Of course, Naidu's statement on raising larger families was an oddity).

But what about Naidu’s own challenges? Naidu is fighting a multi-pronged battle on the home front almost single-handedly. Consider the TDP's status. Naidu does not have the luxury of leaving key decisions to someone else. He has to be in full control of the party unwaveringly which imposes certain restrictions on his pan-Indian pursuit if he prefers to really step in to the shoes of such a front's chairman.

The script is really as challenging as that of Sholay. It is very difficult to write a story without there being, some sort of plot, however vague and tenuous. At this juncture, no one would tell anyone what is going to happen next.

Naidu's challenge will be with the plot and also with the sub-plots. Because a successful story requires, a good plot, good sub-plots and good characters and good incidents too. The first and foremost condition Naidu needs to know is whether it is a good idea to have Congress on board at all.

As Henry James pointed out: "What is character but the determination of incident? What is incident but the illustration of character"? Characters of such a coalition do not offer an easy solution to anyone as they are all not pliable and adaptable to a seemingly endless developments. Naidu is an achiever, no doubt. In this case, if it is he alone who can knit any cogent coalition then he would be starting with sorting out the Congress complexity. Or, perhaps, he may be working to knit a post-poll anti-BJP coalition just as in Karnataka if a majority eludes all. Anyway, it all depends on whether or not Naidu agrees to lead the front!