Battle Royale between YSRCP, TDP-BJP

Hyderabad: A loud, coarse and rabble-rousing election campaign marked by vitriolic accusations has ended and the silent work of the so-called “poll management” which generally means influencing the voters with inducements has begun. The 48 hours are very crucial and critical for every party. The actual amount spent in this election will never be known. But what can be said without any fear of contradiction is that the level of expenditure is unprecedented. The amount of unaccounted money confiscated by the Election Commission itself is more than Rs 150 crore, more than 40 per cent of black money captured throughout the country. One can only imagine the actual amount of money spent. The campaign went on expected lines with no responsible debate on the problems faced by the people and the ways and means of solving them. Making wild, unsubstantiated allegations, repeating them any number of times for effect and promising something that is impossible to deliver has been the hallmark of the most vicious and crude election campaign ever conducted in the country. It is also one of the fiercest electoral battles witnessed so far. This intensely fought election is critically important for both Chandrababu Naidu and Jaganmohan Reddy while contributing to the history being made in Delhi.

High-voltage campaign

The campaign in Seemandhra by YS Jaganmohan Reddy, president of the YSRCP, started in right earnest soon after the tragic death of his father. He started visiting districts ostensibly to console the families of those who allegedly committed suicide on hearing the shocking news of the copter accident that killed YS Rajasekhara Reddy. In the interval when YSJ was in jail for 16 months, Sharmila undertook padayatra and valiantly kept up the momentum with Vijayalakshmi butting in as far as she could. General impression before the bifurcation of the State became a reality was that YSRCP was very strong and it would win elections hands down. But the AP Bifurcation Bill 2014 that was passed by Parliament has changed the game with Telugu Desam Party (TDP) coming back in a big way. TDP president Chandrababu Naidu had joined hands with Narendra Modi, BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, and coopted Pawan Kalyan, film hero and younger brother of actor-turned-politician-MP-Union Minister Chiranjeevi. The triumvirate of the BJP-TDP-Jana Sena alliance-Modi, Naidu, Pawan- mounted a powerful campaign in the last week of electioneering inspiring the workers and persuading the voters to reflect. With the positive atmosphere created by Modi and Naidu, the TDP came back into the reckoning. The chances appear fifty-fifty between the YSRCP and BJP-TDP alliance at the time of curtains being rung down on the campaign on Monday evening.

Loan waiver

There are a number of theories on the prospects of the important parties. It is presumed that the YSRCP enjoys the backing of Reddy community, SCs, Christians and Muslims which amounts to 34.5 per cent of vote share. This is almost equal to the vote share of the Congress party in earlier elections. The BJP-TDP alliance is supposed to have a vote share of 32.5 percent. The new voters would comprise about 10 per cent. If majority of the new voters are influenced by Modi and Pawan then the chances of BJP-TDP combine winning majority seats would brighten. Ask anyone in streets, your confusion gets confounded. One would say the voters had decided the moment YS Jaganmohan Reddy launched his party to vote for him. This is a vote for YSR not Jaganmohan Reddy, he insists. A professor of Andhra University who did not want to be named argued that the welfare measures implemented by YSR government were such that the people can never forget. This is more so since the governments that followed YSR’s were lackluster and unstable. He says the farm loan waiver that YSR implemented had made the farm families indebted to him and the farmers are keen to clear the debt by voting to YSRCP at least in one election. Many farmers had mortgaged their family gold with private money lenders to raise loans for cultivation. They were not able to repay loans and get the gold back. They could not get their daughters married for three years. After the loan waiver came into effect, they could withdraw their gold and mortgage it again to take fresh loans to get their daughters married. This happened throughout the coastal districts. The beneficiaries of this policy are reportedly in favour of voting for the YSRCP at least once. The other measure that had the people of the region beholden to YSR was “Arogya Shri”. This sentiment is seen across the castes and communities. That is the reason why Naidu was repeatedly promising that farm loans and the loans taken by women self-help groups would be waived besides nine hours of quality power supply to farms. The TDP chief had also promised to make healthcare cheaper and to improve the facilities at the district hospitals. Besides attacking YSRCP and the Congress party, Naidu had unleashed an energetic campaign competing with YSJ.

Selection of candidates

Had the selection of candidates by the TDP chief been more meticulous, its chances would have been even better. At many places, the candidates were kept guessing by Naidu who made last minute changes giving tickets to those who joined his party from the Congress after the election schedule was announced thus denying an opportunity to the leaders who have been working for the party for years. This had caused bad blood resulting in a number of independents in the fray who are TDP rebels. In contrast, YS Jaganmohan Reddy (YSJ) had done his homework diligently and announced the names of 170 Assembly candidates and 24 Lok Sabha candidates at one go and left for campaigning. There was not a single whimper.

The Congress and the Jai Samaikyandhra Party (JSP) are fighting for the deposits of their candidate. They are not taken seriously by their opponents and the general public. Kiran Kumar Reddy would have won from Piler. He chose to field his younger brother who needs luck to win. There are four or five Congress candidates who hope to keep their deposit if not post a win. As C Narasimha Rao, political analyst, quipped, the Seemandhra Assembly may achieve a distinction of being the first Assembly in independent India which does not have a single Congress MLA.

3 versus 3

While the campaign on behalf of the YSRCP was spearheaded by three leaders- YSJ, Vijayalakshmi and Sharmila, the onslaught on behalf of BJP-TDP alliance was led from the front by three formidable warriors- Modi, Naidu and Pawan Kalyan. It was mainly Naidu who put in a lot of hard work addressing a number of meetings for almost a month. Modi and Pawan joined him at the fag end of the campaign. Modi has addressed six campaign meetings with Naidu and Pawan Kalyan. Modi, blamed the Congress party for dividing the people instead of dividing the State. Lampooning Rahul Gandhi for his “immature” statements on economy and governance and also criticising Congress president Sonia Gandhi for insulting former Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao even after death by not allowing the body to be cremated in Delhi, Modi promised the beleaguered people of Seemandhra that he would stand by them and help them develop fast. He assured them that he would help build a beautiful capital city that would outshine Hyderabad. He appeared to be communicating effectively connecting to the people fairly well. Venkaiah Naidu’s translation was of great help.

Naidu had sensed the mood of the people and decided that some more incentives needed to be announced. He came up with the slogan that there would be two deputy chief ministers-one from Kapu community and another from BCs. Dy CM is an honorary position for which there is no provision in the Constitution. But it is one way of recognising the seniority and importance of member or members of the Cabinet. It has become necessary to have some attractive offer to Kapu community. At one point in time, a number of Congress MLAs from the Kapu community were about join the TDP. Many of them met Naidu and prepared the ground for their entry.

They first tried to get into the YSRCP. When there was no welcome, they tried to join the TDP. But changes made in candidates till the last date for withdrawal of nominations made the whole thing messy. The YSRCP has given eight tickets out of 19 to the candidates belonging to the Kapu community without any hassle and without anyone making a demand. To begin with the TDP gave tickets to only four Kapus. Naidu had to increase the number of seats for Kapus. He gave two more seats to that community making it six.

Naidu has been telling the people that YSJ is certain to go to jail and his party would not be around after the polls. All the ammunition is reserved for YSJ since it is a direct fight against the YSRCP. Naidu went ballistic while talking about the magnitude of YSJ’s and YSR’s corruption. Nageswara Rao, owner of a hotel on the highway near Tadepalligudem, was optimistic that Naidu would become CM again. “He is the only person who has the track record of development. YSJ will be a disaster. Naidu should be the first CM of Seemandhra”, he said. Naidu, being an alert politician and a consummate strategist, has been adding new points with every passing day. He has been fighting against younger leaders arraigned against him-Chiranjeevi, Kiran Kumar Reddy, YSJ and Sharmila. But he was as energetic and hardworking as others. He was also tactful in inviting Pawan Kalyan to join the brigade. This step has enhanced his firepower.

‘Power’ Kalyan’s punches

Pawan Kalyan who was described by Modi as ‘Power Kalyan’ at Guntur election meeting on May 1st has been harping on three points while delivering punch dialogues. One, Narendra Modi is the only politician who is capable of taking the country forward and hence has to be voted for. Modi will create wealth, jobs and new opportunities, assures Pawan. Two, Narendra Modi in Delhi and Naidu in Seemandhra would be an ideal arrangement for speedy development of Seemandhra and India. Modi would give a lot of money to build new capital. Three, YS Jaganmohan Reddy is not fit to become Chief Minister because he did not prevent K Chandrasekhara Rao (KCR) chief of Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) from “threatening, blackmailing and abusing” the people of Seemandhra. YSJ failed in retaliating KCR’s invectives.

Pawan Kalyan has been using strong words against KCR. He has realised that most of the people in Seemandhra love to hate KCR. He has been thundering in election meetings that he would not spare KCR for using foul language against the people of Seemandhra. He threatened to strip the skin off him. He delivered this punch in an election meeting in Telangana. The film hero has been trying to use the same kind of language that KCR has been using. He says that he was harassed by some people from YSRCP and TRS. He was threatened that he would not be allowed to shoot if he did not follow the dictation of those two parties. He has been making this kind of statements in the last leg of the campaign. Pawan was roundly attacked by Sharmila at a number of meetings. YSJ and his mother did not think it fit to counterattack Pawan. Sharmila had paid him in the same coin. I heard the film hero at Guntur and Rajahmundry; watching his other meetings across the Godavari belt on TV screen.

Modi has been giving a lot of importance to him with an eye on the votes of youngsters. Pawan’s rhetoric and heroics have been going well with the fans that comprise a majority in the modest crowds he attracted in West Godavari and East Godavari. But some Kapu community leaders in Rajahmundry and Kakinada expressed their disapproval of his stand saying that their community is utterly unhappy when Pawan Kalyan praised Naidu whom they have been opposing. The general consensus is that Pawan Kalyan would make a difference of less than two per cent of votes in coastal Andhra districts. That could be a critical percentage in final analysis.

Keeping memory alive

YSJ has been exhorting the people to elect a leader who takes care of them and who works for their welfare and who lives in their hearts even after his death. His effort has been to keep the fond memory of YSR, a leader whose agenda was welfare of the people, alive. In a way, YSR has been fighting the elections in absentia. His wife, son and daughter have been going round the region reminding the people of the welfare regime presided over by YSR. The second important part of the speeches made by the trio is deriding Naidu’s role in bifurcation of the State beside general criticism of his nine-year rule between 1995 and 2004. Mostly it is comparison between two governments headed by YSR and Naidu. Three of them are faithful to the script. While Vijayalakshmi speaks in a matter of fact way and YSJ appears stereotype and mechanical, Sharmila appears relaxed and successful in sending the message home.

Modi’s wave crucial

Corruption has never been an election issue in AP. Though the main plank of attack by Naidu against YSJ is corruption, it does not seem to be sinking in the minds of the people. Anita, a young woman who was in the crowd that was present at Beach Road in Vizag to hear YSJ on Saturday evening said, “YSR may be corrupt but he gave us some benefits while others who are also corrupt did not bother about us.” This sums of the mood of the people in the rural areas and in slum areas in cities. There is a strong desire in rural areas to vote for the YSRCP for this time. Educated and business class in semi-urban areas and cities are in favour of voting for BJP-TDP alliance. There is likelihood of cross-voting in the region resulting in more Lok Sabha seats for the BJP-TDP disproportionate to the Assembly seats the alliance would win. It all depends on how much of difference Modi wave is going to make.