Will bellwether segments hold the sway this time?

​Hyderabad: As the campaign for December 7 election drew to a close on Wednesday evening, both Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and Congress-led People's Front are keeping their fingers crossed as to whom the all-important voters would be reposing their faith in while casting the ballot. 

Interestingly, there are a few bellwether constituencies like Andole, Gajwel, Bodhan, Narsapur, Shadnagar, Suryapet, Jangaon and Manthani, where the winning party formed the government at the State. Andole and Gajwel have been carrying this interesting trend for the last 30 years, while the remaining constituencies for the last 14 years.

If we look at Gajwel constituency, TRS president and caretaker CM K Chandrashekar Rao won from this constituency in 2014. If we look at past winners Tumkunta Narsa Reddy (INC) won in 2009, J Geetha Reddy (INC) in 2004, B Sanjeeva Rao (TDP) in 1999, G Vijayarama Rao (TDP) in 1994, J Geetha Reddy (INC) in 1989. The party that won the election in Gajwel formed the government at the State level. In 2014 it was TRS, while in 2009 and 2004 (in combined State) it was Congress and earlier to that in 1999 and 1994, it was TDP that came to power. Congress formed the government in 1989 after Marri Channa Reddy overran a triumphant wave to overthrow N T Rama Rao-led TDP.

In case of Andole Assembly segment, the winning candidates and their parties are as follows: P Babu Mohan-TRS (2014), Damodara Rajanarasimha-INC (2009 and 2004), P Babu Mohan-TDP (1999 and 1998 by poll), Malyala Rajaiah-TDP (1999), Damodara Rajanarasimha-Congress (1989). This trend was also seen in other constituencies like Bodhan, Narsapur, Shadnagar, Jangaon, Warangal East, Manthani for the last three elections held in 2014, 2009 and 2004.

Giving his views on this trend, Political Science Professor at University of Hyderabad E Venkatesu explained that this trend could be seen as a coincidence in tune with emerging political scenario in the State. But for a politician, it may be a sentiment and for a voter from the concerned segment, it gives an exciting feeling while casting their vote, he said.

However, long historical trend of electoral results in that particular constituency needs to be analysed and connected to the State-level political situation for more understanding of this trend, the UoH professor said.